World Population Prospects 2024: UN

July 13, 2024

The most recent “World Population Prospects 2024” study from the United Nations gives us a lot more information about how many people are expected to live on Earth in the future. According to key findings, the world’s population will hit its peak of about 10.3 billion people in the middle of the 1980s. After that, it will start to slowly decline until the end of the century. The fact that this peak is about 700 million fewer than what was thought ten years ago shows that population trends have changed.

Factors Affecting Population Growth

Lower birth rates in some of the world’s most popular countries, like China, are to blame for the change in population predictions. These changes are having a big effect on the demographic picture and give us a new way to think about how populations will change in the future. The earlier coming of this population peak is also seen as a good thing for the environment because it could reduce the stress that human consumption puts on the planet’s resources.

Global Distribution and Ageing

Over a quarter of the world’s people live in places like China, Russia, Japan, and Germany where population growth has stopped. This group is going to grow because countries like Brazil, Iran, and Turkey are going to have their most populous decades in the next 30 years. Also, after 2054, the populations of more than 120 countries will still be growing. This includes big countries like India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States. The ages of people in the population are also changing. In line with trends seen after Covid, life expectancy will rise from an average of 73.3 years in 2024 to 77.4 years in 2054. It is expected that by the late 2070s, there will be more adults aged 65 and up than people under 18 years old. This means that the world’s population is getting older quickly.

Implications

The world’s population is getting older and will finally go down, which brings both problems and chances. It might help the environment in some ways by lowering total consumption, but it also makes people more aware of the need to live in a way that is good for the environment. Also, governments around the world may face problems because of populations that are getting older, such as a lack of workers and higher healthcare needs. In conclusion, it is important to understand these population trends for policymaking and long-term growth, as they will have big effects on the world’s social, economic, and environmental settings in the future.

About UN Population Prospects

Global and Regional Trends: The UN Population Prospects study projects the world’s population to peak at about 10.4 billion by 2100, with India surpassing China as the most populous country by 2023. Africa is highlighted for its significant population growth, with Nigeria expected to be the third most populous country by 2050.
Longevity and Migration: By 2050, the global life expectancy is projected to reach nearly 77 years, reflecting improvements in healthcare. Conversely, Europe’s population may decline due to falling birth rates and increased longevity. Migration plays a crucial but complex role in shaping demographic changes, especially in developed regions.

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