What is Happening in Maldives?

The political history of Maldives can be divided into two phases viz. Pre-2008 and Post-2008.

Pre 2008: Authoritarian Era

Maldives was a colony of Britain from 1887 to 1965 and was ruled under a succession of sultans. Following its independence in 1965, Maldives ‘dependency relationship’ ended with Britain. A national referendum was held in 1968 which abolished the sultanate and established a republic.  However, the termination of colonial rule did not resulted in change of social structure of the country. It was continued to be dominated by old ruling elite with profound influence on society and polity.

Then began the autocratic regime of Ibrahim Nasir who held office of the president from 1968 to 1978.He was succeeded by Maumoon Abdul Gayoom who ruled the country with an iron fist for 30 years before being toppled in 2008. He sustained three coup attempts in 1980, 1983 and 1988.Third coup attempt of 1988 alarmed the international community.Sri lankan mercenaries disguised as visitors landed in male and tried to dethrone Gayoom. At President Gayoom’s request, the Indian military suppressed the coup and restored the stability.

Although many progressive changes were introduced during his rule like Maldives became a member of International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Further tourism was also promoted which benefitted the local economy. However, complete control over political institutions, ban on media, political imprisonment and killings were widely reported under his rule. It led to anti-government demonstrations calling for reforms and multiparty elections since 2004 which forced Gayoom to introduce democratic reforms and establish Human Rights Commission.

Consequently various political parties like Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) headed by Mohamed Nasheed, Islamic Democratic Party (IDP) etc. were allowed to register in Maldives.

Post 2008: Endeavour to build a democratic state

It was in 2008 that Maldives witnessed first democratic elections following the promulgation of new constitution, thus, putting an end to authoritarian era. The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) came to power with Mohammad Nasheed as the president. The country witnessed many positive reforms during his tenure and built progressive relations with all the countries especially India.

Although a number of institutional and legislative reforms were introduced since 2008 with adoption of new constitution containing bill of rights, gender parity for constitutional post etc yet political developments in Maldives were on rough path. There was lack of consensus among political parties on issues like judicial independence, presidential powers and parliamentary elections which led to uncertainty in policy decisions.

In 2012, Nasheed was forced to resign following wide spread protests after he ordered illegal detention of Criminal Court judge Abdulla Mohamed. In addition to this there was discontentment brewing among the public over his decisions like contract with Indian infrastructure company, GMR, without the consent of the Parliament, rising inflation etc. Although Nasheed claimed he was deposed in a military-led coup which led to the formation of a Commission of National Inquiry (CoNI) but in its report findings suggested that the resignation was legal. Therefore political tensions continued till 2013 elections.

In 2013 elections were held in which Mr. Nasheed from MDP and Mr. Abdulla Yameen contested. However both the candidates failed to secure the fifty per cent mark in the first round. Second round of elections was delayed by the authorities, allowing enough time for Mr. Yameen, a half-brother of former dictator Abdul Gayoom, to garner support. Finally, Mr. Abdulla Yameen’s party came to power in alliance Jhumri party (JP).

By 2015 the political space in the Maldives started shrinking and political crisis heightened. On March 13, 2015 former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed was sentenced to 13 years in prison on a conviction of terrorism. A three-judge panel ruled in a rushed trial that Nasheed, the country’s first democratically elected president, ordered the illegal arrest of a chief justice when he was in office in January of 2012. Nasheed’s supporters said the trial was politically motivated to prevent him from running against incumbent President Yameen Abdul Gayoom in the 2018 election. The arrest led to global concern about the safety of the former President and the democratization process in the country.

Current Crisis In Maldives

Recently political turmoil started again when an explosion hit President Yameen’s boat while it was docking in the capital. The vice president, Ahmed Adeeb, was arrested for involvement in the explosion on the boat. He has therefore been removed on charges of high treason. This was followed by declaration of emergency on the eve of impeachment proceedings against Adeeb. But the Maldivian government declared the presence of illegal firearms and explosives that posed an imminent national security risk as a official reason for emergency.

Due to declaration of emergency constitutional provisions guaranteeing the right to privacy, right to protest etc. were suspended. Security forces were given sweeping powers to arbitrarily detain people, and search and seize property without a warrant.

Is Declaration Of Emergency Threat To Democracy?

The Critics have raised questions on the grounds of declaration of emergency given the fact that Maldives is a young democracy, already fragile. Although emergency has been declared to maintain national security. But doubts are rife that it has been done to push through the impeachment of Ahmed Adeeb, second in just four months.

It is said Adeeb (vice president) virtually ran Yameen’s government until that speedboat explosion. He had acquired massive influence over politicians and the security services. So the obvious question that Mr. Adheeb’s arrest raises is whether it is part of a larger power game, or whether the government has credible evidence linking him to the blast.

The Emergency has allowed for the impeachment vote to be brought forward by a week. The constitutionally mandated 14 day notice period for impeachment has been shortened to 7 days. Moreover the impeachment was rushed through without giving an opportunity to Adeeb to defend himself. So most political experts are of the view that most immediate reason of emergency pertains to the impeachment motion against Ahmed Adeeb.

Already Yameen Presidency has been criticized widely for its intolerance of dissent and crackdown on the opposition. Mr. Nasheed was jailed for 13 years this year on terrorism charges. A United Nations panel had ruled the jailing illegal and called for his immediate release but it has been rejected by the government. Opposition protests demanding Mr. Nasheed’s release were tackled with a heavy hand. This year witnessed the largest anti-government protests in Maldivian history.

Therefore the declaration of emergency in the Maldives doesn’t indicate any sudden loss of democracy but it has raised a number of questions about the present regime. The government should allow the opposition to operate freely and thereby strengthen the foundations of the young democracy. Moreover it is for the country’s political leadership to understand reconciling political differences on important national matters is very important to sustain democracy.

Should India Intervene?

India being the largest and oldest democracy in the world has always respected the sovereignty and integrity of other countries. Besides the policy of non interference India has always helped other countries in securing their independence and ideas of democracy. Since the coup of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom to President Nasheed taking refuge in India embassy, India has always intervened at the request of Maldivian authorities. Currently unlike other countries like UK, US who have criticized the imposition of emergency, India has restrained from any official statements.

Maldives is an important country for India given its geo strategic position in the Indian Ocean. It is an important country for India to ensure maritime security given the fact it is located astride India’s sea lanes. Moreover, India has also been concerned about present regime’s tilt towards China with the Maldives signing up for the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Maritime Silk Route initiative last year. Presently China accounts for about one-third of tourist arrivals and is also actively investing in infrastructure construction in the tourist sector. Analysts point out that this engagement could culminate in a Chinese naval presence in Maldives.

Also political instability and rising religious radicalism in Maldives will give an opportunity to anti Indian terror groups to take route there.

Further India already had rocky ties with Maldives over the detention of former president Mohammed Nasheed on charges of terrorism. India in accordance with UN report has expressed concern over Nasheed’s arrest on terrorism charges and demanded his release. This was also discussed by our Foreign minister during her recent visit. But Maldives refuse to budge and see it as a interference in its domestic matters which has bit soured the relation between two countries.

Considering the above factors India has to take a cautious approach. Some political analysts argue that India’s silence in the present crisis is driven by the fact that any official criticism may tilt Maldives towards Chinese. However this approach might keep the Maldivian government at India’s side but may raise anti India sentiment among the public.

So the Indian government should closely watch the developments in Maldives and accordingly take a stand and in case of any extreme situation, India may impose some economic sanctions or travel restrictions.