USA’s THAAD deployment in South Korea

The Korean peninsula has known little peace this year due to a series of provocations by North Korea which included two nuclear tests and multiple sea-based and land-based missile tests. The latter have pushed US and South Korea to consider deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) system in South Korea in next 8-10 months.

Possible implications:

Deterrent

The THAAD system will act as a serious deterrent for North Korea before it considers any further provocation.

Chinese reaction

China has given strong reaction to the move as it fears a strategic imbalance in the region which will have the potential to harm the security interests of many countries in the region. The fears of the powerful radars of THAAD to be able to keep watch on Chinese territory have added to fears of China. Chinese foreign minister has stated that more aggressive deployment of advanced Chinese missiles is needed as it views THAAD as a major strategic military problem in the region. Chinese fears emanate from the detection capability of the AN/TPY-2 component of THAAD. There is high possibility that China will restore its nuclear and ballistic credibility by development of missile technologies which will make the early-warning detection systems of AN/TPY-2 irrelevant. It is feared China will deploy small- number of MIRV-equipped missiles. Latter equip China with the ability to nullify interceptors like THAAD. However, China will have to weigh its response to THAAD strategically in terms of slow economic growth.

China-South Korean relations

South Korea is the second largest trade partner of China and thus has economic dependence on the latter. Beijing may resort to coercing South Korea but cannot afford any economic sanctions against the latter in times slowing economy.