Recent reports and National Family health Surveys have signaled a monumental shift in Indian demographics. Highlighting this shift, Discuss the challenges that it will pose. Also, suggest remedial measures.
Recently released NFHS-5 report indicated a monumental shift in Indian demographics.
- Population stabilization and TFR of below 2.0 achieved.
- Share of young people in India’s demography has started to decline.
- Even UNDESA highlighted that India is soon going to witness the phenomenon of ageing, & share of elderly will rise to around 20% by 2050.
Challenges posed by the shift:
- Window to reap the benefits of demographic dividend has reduced. If human capital, health & education is not strengthened, it may turn into a demographic disaster.
- India’s advantage of being a labour surplus nation is soon to fade.
- May demand a structural strength in economy with less labour-intensive sectors. E.g., Shift from textile & leather to service sector.
- Phenomenon of ageing: Rising elderly population & need for social security to them, Rising ratio of dependents in economy.
- North-South divide may widen: Southern states like Kerala – much below TFR, Northern states like UP, Bihar – above TFR. It causes the issues like migration, etc.
Remedial measures:
- Ageing:
- Enhance social security net via universal insurance coverage.
- Enhance geriatric healthcare facilities.
- Enhance research & infrastructure on non-communicable diseases like diabetes, etc.
- Demographic dividend narrowing:
- Enhanced impetus to health care for all (Ayushman Bharat), education for all (NEP).
- Invest in critical technologies like AI, Big data.
- Impetus to higher education via schemes like USA.
- Structural Shift – rationalize number of primary education institutes, focus on equality.
Thus, India’s demographic shifts need complimentary policy shift to reap benefits.