Super El Niño Predicted for 2024

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) climate prediction center has issued a significant forecast, indicating that the Northern Hemisphere may experience a “strong” El Niño weather event from March to May 2024. The outlook even suggests a 1 in 3 chance that this El Niño could be “historically strong,” similar to Super El Niño events seen in 1997-98 and 2015-16.

El Niño’s Impact on Global Weather

El Niño is characterized by the warming of Pacific Ocean waters near South America and has far-reaching consequences on global weather patterns. It can trigger extreme weather events, affecting food production, water resources, and the well-being of both human populations and ecosystems.

Likelihood of a Strong El Niño

The likelihood of a strong El Niño event in 2024 stands at approximately 75%-80%, signifying that equatorial sea surface temperatures will be at least 1.5°C warmer than average. There is also a 30% chance that temperatures may rise by over 2°C, potentially making it a “historically strong” El Niño event.

Regional Impacts

In Northern America, a strong El Niño typically leads to drier and warmer-than-average conditions. Conversely, parts of the southern United States tend to experience wetter weather and somewhat below-average temperatures in winter.

In India, El Niño is commonly associated with weakened Monsoon winds and arid conditions, often resulting in reduced rainfall during the monsoon season. Super El Niño events can disrupt typical weather patterns in India, leading to unusual and sometimes extreme weather events. These can include heavy rainfall and flooding in some areas and extended dry spells in others. The impact of El Niño tends to be more pronounced in northern India compared to the southern regions.

Historical Perspective

Historically, about 50% of El Niño years have resulted in drought conditions during the Monsoon season, causing all-India rainfall to fall below 90% of the long-period average. The occurrence of El Niño is influenced by oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and the NOAA plans to revise its forecasts in November based on the most recent data.

The prediction of a strong El Niño event in 2024 underscores the importance of monitoring and preparing for its potential impacts on various regions around the world. Extreme weather events associated with El Niño can have significant economic, social, and environmental consequences, making accurate forecasting and preparedness crucial for affected communities.

Month: Current Affairs - October, 2023