Study Reveals Potential Collision Risk for Asteroid Apophis

September 9, 2024

A new study has raised concerns regarding the near-Earth asteroid 99942 Apophis, previously considered unlikely to collide with our planet. Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert’s findings introduce a new variable that could potentially alter its trajectory.

Introduction to 99942 Apophis

99942 Apophis is a large asteroid that travels close to Earth. It is about 1,210 feet (370 meters) in diameter and was discovered in 2004. Because of its size and path near Earth, scientists called it “God of Chaos.” On April 13, 2029, Apophis will pass by Earth at a distance of around 31,000 kilometers, which is quite close for an asteroid.

When Apophis was first discovered, scientists were worried it might hit Earth. Early calculations suggested a small chance, about 2.7%, that it could collide with our planet. However, more detailed observations later showed that the risk of a collision was very low, so scientists were not as concerned anymore.

New Research Findings

A recent study by Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert suggests a new concern. He found that even though Apophis is on a safe path for now, a collision with a small object in space could change its direction. If Apophis were to collide with an object as small as 0.6 meters (2 feet) wide, it could affect its path slightly. A bigger collision with an object about 3.4 meters (11 feet) wide could potentially make Apophis hit Earth.

Probability of Impact

Even though this new possibility exists, the chances of Apophis being hit by another object and then hitting Earth are extremely low. The likelihood of such an event is about 1 in 100 million (10^-8). The chances of Apophis colliding with Earth remain less than 1 in 2 billion.

Wiegert pointed out another issue: Apophis has not been closely observed since May 2021 because it is positioned in a way that makes it difficult to see from Earth using telescopes. Scientists won’t get a clear view of it again until 2027.

While the risk of Apophis hitting Earth remains very small, scientists still need to monitor it closely. Continued research and observation will help ensure that if any new risks arise, we will be better prepared to handle them.

About 99942 Apophis

Apophis is an asteroid that orbits the Sun once every 324 days. It belongs to a group of asteroids called Apollo-type asteroids, which have orbits that can bring them close to Earth. Some researchers also believe that Apophis may have a smaller companion asteroid orbiting it, making it a “binary” asteroid. Its name, Apophis, comes from the Egyptian god of chaos, reflecting the initial concerns it caused when first discovered.

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