Study Highlights Slowdown in Rising Life Expectancy Trends

October 11, 2024

For many years, life expectancy has been increasing because of improvements in medicine and technology. However, it seems to be slowing down now. A new study suggests that if we want to significantly extend how long people live, we need to find ways to combat the natural ageing process itself, not just treat common diseases like cancer or heart disease.

Study Overview

The study, called “Implausibility of Radical Life Extension in Humans in the Twenty-First Century,” was published in Nature Aging. It was led by S. Jay Olshansky from the University of Illinois Chicago. The research highlights concerns that we may be nearing the limits of how much we can extend human life with current medical advances.

Methodology

Researchers looked at data on life expectancy from 1990 to 2019. They focused on countries with historically long life expectancies, like Japan, Italy, and Switzerland. They also used national data from the United States to back up their findings.

Key Findings

During the 20th century, life expectancy increased dramatically, almost doubling from 1920 to 2020. But between 1990 and 2019, the increase in life expectancy was only 6.5 years in the longest-living countries. The study also found that the chances of reaching 100 years old are still quite low—5.3% for girls and 1.8% for boys born in these regions.

According to Olshansky, even if we could stop people from dying of diseases like cancer or heart disease, the body’s natural ageing process would still limit how long we can live. This is because, as we age, our internal organs start to wear out, which makes it hard to extend life significantly without addressing the ageing process itself.

Future Directions

The study suggests that if we want to see an average life expectancy of 100 years, science needs to develop treatments that specifically slow down ageing. Some current research, like studies on a drug called metformin, shows potential in animal trials for helping to extend life. This could be a promising step towards longer lifespans in the future.

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