Study: Accelerated Ice Melt in West Antarctica Unstoppable

October 25, 2023

A new study suggests that regardless of efforts to reduce carbon emissions, the accelerated melting of ice in west Antarctica is set to continue throughout this century. This alarming revelation carries dire implications for rising sea levels, potentially forcing the abandonment of coastal cities.

Enormous Impact on Sea Levels

The west Antarctic ice sheet, if completely lost, could contribute to a significant sea level rise of up to 5 meters. Previous research hinted at its eventual collapse over centuries, but this recent study indicates that even with substantial emissions reductions in the coming decades, the ice melt will persist.

Escalating Melting Rates in the Amundsen Sea

An analysis reveals that the rate of melting in the floating ice shelves of the Amundsen Sea will triple this century compared to the previous century, even if global efforts successfully meet the ambitious Paris agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Impact on Coastal Cities

As the floating ice shelves disintegrate, glacial ice sheets on land are freed to slide rapidly into the ocean. This phenomenon poses a severe threat to coastal cities, including metropolises like New York, Mumbai, and Shanghai. Over a third of the global population resides within 100 kilometers of the coast, making them vulnerable to sea level rise.

Complex Factors Driving Sea Level Rise

The climate crisis is driving sea level rise through the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, as well as the thermal expansion of seawater. The most significant uncertainty regarding future sea level rise lies in Antarctica, complicating adaptation planning. Urgent translation of these new findings into specific sea level rise estimates is essential.

Adapting to the Inevitable

Researchers suggest that we may have lost control over west Antarctic ice shelf melting for the 21st century. Some coastal communities may have to build defenses or face abandonment. While the situation appears perilous, Naughten emphasizes the importance of continued climate action for future generations.

Comprehensive Research and Natural Variability

This research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, utilized a high-resolution computer model of the Amundsen Sea, providing the most comprehensive assessment of warming in the region to date. It underscores the significance of natural climate variability in west Antarctica.

A Global Challenge

As sea levels rise, the world faces the challenge of dealing with displacement and a potential refugee crisis affecting millions, or even billions, of people. Finding solutions to address this looming crisis is crucial for the well-being of future generations.

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