Story of Nagaland Insurgency: Part-5
Current Status and Perspectives
So far, the peace in Nagaland remains elusive. There is a ceasefire agreement in force since 1997. In August 2015, a ‘framework agreement’ between the Central Government and the NSCN-IM was signed. The deal has been struck by interlocutor Mr. R N Ravi, who knows this issue and the region in-depth. He is also the Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee and a former Special Director of the Intelligence Bureau. This agreement itself is not a final settlement but is a framework agreement; but despite all its limitations; it is of far reaching importance. Firstly, it shows the flexibility and realism of the NSCN (IM) in terms of the willingness to alter goals. For example, their demand has changed from a complete sovereignty and Greater Nagalim to “shared sovereignty” and greater autonomy to Naga inhabited areas outside of Nagaland through the establishment of autonomous district councils within constitutional framework. Secondly, the signing of the accord shows that Nagas are insistent on a peaceful path to conflict resolution. Thirdly, it brings to an end to an ‘almost two-decade-old’ ceasefire and endless rounds of ‘talks’ and opens up windows of peace talks with several other militias.
Current Concerns
However, there are several concerns. Firstly, the other Naga rebel factions, particularly the Khaplang-faction of the NSCN or the NSCN-K that is now outside the purview of the peace process. NSCN-K had abrogated its 14-year-long ceasefire with New Delhi in April 2015 and has since carried out the biggest attack on the Indian army in two decades when it ambushed and killed 18 soldiers of the Dogra Regiment in Manipur’s Chandel district on 4 June 2015. The NSCN-K could now try and strike in a bid to demonstrate its presence and relevance, and that is precisely the reason why the Naga civil society is stressing on the need to once again try and get the outfit back on the road to peace. Then there are other factions as well. In such a situation, how durable peace could be secured in the Naga hills is another critical question. Without bringing all the factions on the table there are still chances of insurgencies erupting once again in the state. Thirdly, the most contentious clause in the demand put forward was the integration of Naga inhabited areas in neighbouring states of Nagaland, a demand that has faced intense opposition from the concerned states, particularly Manipur. This may not be acceptable to Manipur dominated by martial Meitei population whose chief minister Ibobi Singh has already declared assertively that there would be no compromise on Manipur’s territorial integrity. [We note here that territorial integrity of states is not guaranteed. All states are destructible parts of indestructible union].
Nevertheless it’s a landmark development because it has confirmed that the two sides have succeeded in narrowing down their differences and are on the verge of reaching a Peace Accord.But to make the accord a success there needs to be more consultations with the involvement of civil society etc. There is a belief that the agreement with the NSCN-IM could impact on the insurgent groups in states like Assam, Meghalaya or Manipur and encourage them to shun violence and join the peace bandwagon, but that will turn into reality only if the final deal with the Isak-Muivah faction is reached fast.