Stages of Viral Spread
The Prime Minister called for a Janata Curfew to be observed on the 22nd of March as the country fears the entry into the next stage of the virus’ spread.
Stage 1
The stage 1 is the imported cases. People (citizens and foreigners) who had travelled to virus hit countries return to India. Some of them may be infected and present the first cases of the disease in the country. The government is screening the airports for such imports and also restricting international travel.
Stage 2
Stage 2 is the local spreading of the virus. The patients who had been infected during their travel abroad may transmit the virus to their close contacts. The families of the travellers are put under observation and quarantine. Contact tracing exercises are also undertaken.
Stage 3
Stage 3 is the community level spreading of the disease. People who had no history of foreign travel may be infected. Large areas of the community may be affected in this stage. India is currently in stage 2. The curfew is expected to break the virus’ progress to an extent.
Stage 4
Stage 4 is the epidemic. This represents the peaking of the epidemic curve. While this is the last stage of an epidemic, it is also the worst and with unclear endpoint. It’s devastating effects can be seen from the case of China and Italy.
