SAARC Minus Pakistan

SAARC, the economic and geopolitical group of eight South Asian countries viz. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, is going through a crucial phase in current times. Amid deteriorating Indo-Pak relations, government of India’s decision to skip the SAARC summit; and similar follow up by other countries, not only underlines the growing irrelevance of this body but also may give new momentum to search for alternatives of SAARC. We remind ourselves that this is not the first time a SAARC summit has been postponed / cancelled. Roughly, half the times they were either not held or were postponed, thus SAARC has generally been hostage to bilateral issues.

After the recent decision of Indian Government to skip the SAARC summit at Islamabad, the summit was “postponed”. With this, idea of SAARC-Minus Pakistan has gained momentum in India while the idea of a “Greater South Asia” was floated by Pakistan in recent times.

Pakistan as the regional spoiler

• In the post-liberalization era (1990 onwards), the regional integration seemed to be a necessity, and on its part, India adopted its policy of economic regionalism, emphasising trade liberalization, regional connectivity, transborder economic projects and so on.
• As the new proposals came, most of them were shot down by Pakistan and its deep state {army}. Pakistan’s deep state did not like anything that involved India and India’s influence.
• In 1980s, it set up the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) with Iran and Turkey, which other Central Asian Regions joined after collapse of Soviet Union. Then, the growth of China-Pakistan friendship resulted in the CPEC.
• It pulled back from SAARC trade liberalization and cross border talks during UPA regime at the eleventh hour. It also walked away from the agreements on road connectivity, SAARC Satellite and so on.
• In the aftermath of recent SAARC summit postponement, Pakistan’s officials have floated an idea of a “Greater South Asia” to “counter India’s influence”. This Greater South Asia includes China, Iran and Central Asian Republics.

India’s efforts to Isolate Pakistan

Though it was clear that Pakistan’s obstructionist policy would take SAARC nowhere, India generally shrugged its shoulders during past regimes. However, PM Modi has taken a different track. In the Kathmandu summit itself, he had called for a double speed SAARC and not to allow one country to take the entire region hostage. This was followed by coming together of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal and implements the motor vehicle agreement.

The sub-regional cooperation / Implications for India’s neighbourhood first policy

The SAARC charter allows two or more countries to embark on Sub-regional Corporation but so far this instrument remained underutilized. As back as 1997, India made efforts to create the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) to bring together five South Asian countries (BBIN+Sri Lanka) together with Burma and Thailand. However, BIMSTEC has been dormant all these years. The current government has tried to re-energise BIMSTEC by inviting its leaders to participate in recent BRICS summit. This also indicates that any melt down in SAARC does not mean that India has given up its “Neighbourhood First” policy.