NSO First Advance Estimates of National Income

January 7, 2023

The National Statistical Office (NSO), a division of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released its First Advance Estimates (FAE) of national income for the financial year 2022-23 at both constant (2011-12) and current prices. These estimates, which serve as essential inputs for the budgeting process, are based on limited data and compiled using the Benchmark-Indicator Method. This involves extrapolating the estimates from the previous year using relevant indicators that reflect the performance of various sectors.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real GDP, or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices, is estimated to be ₹157.60 lakh crore in 2022-23, compared to the provisional estimate of ₹147.36 lakh crore for the previous year. This reflects a growth rate of 7.0% in 2022-23, down from 8.7% in 2021-22.

Nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, is estimated to be ₹273.08 lakh crore in 2022-23, compared to the provisional estimate of ₹236.65 lakh crore for the previous year. This reflects a growth rate of 15.4% in 2022-23, down from 19.5% in 2021-22.

Sector-Wise Estimates

The sector-wise estimates for 2022-23 were compiled using a range of indicators, including the Index of Industrial Production, financial performance of listed companies, crop and livestock production, fish production, and transportation data from railways, civil aviation, and major sea ports. Sales of commercial vehicles and bank deposits and credits were also taken into account. The percentage changes in these indicators are provided in the annexure.

Tax Revenue and Government Spending

The total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes both non-GST and GST revenue. The budget estimates for tax revenue in 2022-23, as provided by the Controller General of Accounts and the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, were used to estimate taxes on products at current prices. For taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation was used based on the volume growth of taxed goods and services.

Total product subsidies were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies, such as those for food, urea, petroleum, and nutrient-based subsidies, as well as expenditure incurred on subsidies by most states up to November 2022. Information on revenue expenditure, interest payments, and subsidies from the budget documents of the central and state governments for 2022-23 were also used to estimate government final consumption expenditure.

Revisions to Estimates

It is important to note that these are early projections for 2022-23 and are subject to revision. Improved data coverage, actual tax collections and expenditure on subsidies, and data revisions by source agencies may all impact subsequent revisions of these estimates. The First Revised Estimates for 2021-22, due for release on 28.02.2023, may also lead to revision in the growth rates reflected in the FAE. As such, these estimates should be treated with caution.

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