Northwestern, Central, and South-Central India Set to Become Heat Wave Hotspots

October 26, 2023

A new government study conducted by the Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, under the Department of Science and Technology, reveals that northwestern, central, and south-central India are poised to become future heat wave hotspots. These regions could experience a significant four-to-seven-fold increase in the frequency of heatwaves in the mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2099) future, depending on different emission scenarios.

Emission Scenarios and Concentration Pathways

The study analyzed future changes in heatwave characteristics based on two emission scenarios:

RCP 4.5 Scenario: This scenario envisions emissions peaking during the mid-century and declining by the end of the century.
RCP 8.5 Scenario: It is the highest baseline scenario, where emissions continue to rise throughout the century.

Projected Heatwave Trends

Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the study forecasts a four-to-seven-fold increase in heatwave frequency, while the RCP 8.5 scenario predicts a five-to-ten-fold increase. In both scenarios, the increase in frequency surpasses changes in intensity.

Heat Wave Hotspots

The study identifies northwestern, central, and south-central India as future heatwave hotspots. Among these regions, south-central India is expected to experience the most significant increase in heatwave frequency.

Implications and Adaptation Measures

The high-resolution regional projections of future heatwave occurrence serve as a baseline for developing strategies to enhance resilience against heatwaves. These strategies are essential to mitigate potential impacts on human health, agriculture, and infrastructure.

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