New Model of Monsoon Prediction

A new model of monsoon prediction based on multiple linear regression (MLR) has been developed by scientists from the Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), IIT Kharagpur, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad.

The new method will aid in developing accurate predictions by addressing the following challenges of the existing traditional systems

• Indian monsoon is a complex feature which is affected by multiple events across globe which includes El Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole, La-nina etc. The new model considers these factors and assigns a value to each.
• The current dynamic models respond a little too much to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the relationship between Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) and summer monsoon in models has been found to be opposite to actual observation. This had resulted in inaccurate predictions.
• The study observes that there is a positive co-relation between EQUINOO and monsoon. Better understanding of the of EQUINOO’s impact on monsoon. The revelations from this new study will set the ground for accurate predictions and making necessary corrections to the existing dynamic models.
• For the first time the first time has taken into account the variations in monsoon across the country. The study confirms NSO and EQUINOO are two major drivers for Indian monsoon and explain around 50% variability in
• The accuracy of the models was limited due to the lack of data and adequate information on climatic processes, researchers. The study aids scientists in fine-tuning the models for accurate weather prediction.

The new model and the associated study have brought various new factors which will come in handy in better prediction of the monsoons which is the lifeline of Indian agriculture. [Mint]