Modi’s Balochistan Remark

I had written a complete monograph on this issue in one of the CGS documents earlier. You may read it here to understand the historical background of Baluchistan issue. Some questions are being taken here:

What are the implicit and exploit meanings of PM Modi’s Baluchistan remark from ramparts of Red Fort?

On August 15, 2016 Prime Minister mentioned gave reference to the Baloch freedom struggle in his Independence Day speech, saying the people in the conflicted Pakistani state of Baluchistan, as also in Gilgit and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, had reached out to him.

This move was unprecedented because so far India has denied any role in Baluchistan and denied all allegations of Pakistan regarding subversive activities there. Pakistan remarked that it proved that India, through its main intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing, has been fomenting terrorism in Baluchistan”.

Can India play a proactive role in Baluchistan’s freedom movement like it did in case of Bangladesh?

The case of Baluchistan is fundamentally different from Bangladesh. With the later, we had a shared and porous border and also unity in the group that led its movement and withering capability of Pakistan’s army. Further, India was forced to take proactive role because of overflow of refugees in its territory.

Baluchistan is different and its people are divided along the tribal and ideological lines. Further, there is an international apathy over the issue; and that is why it has not posed any threats to Pakistan. Further, any proactive role by India needs geographical proximity, and due to lack of this, it cannot sustain such action in long term.

What can be outcome of Indian support for Baloch separatists?

Indian support for Baloch separatists could result in all if not at least one of the following scenarios:

• The breakup of Pakistan along ethnic line and a mass migration of refugees following the balkanization of Pakistan.
• A massive influx of migrants to India leading to a humanitarian crisis, stretching the capacity of the Indian government.
• Communal violence between Muslim immigrants and Hindus in India.
• Totally unpredictable behaviour of a broken Pakistani military, risking a nuclear conflict.

Therefore, though India may be tempted to support Baloch nationalists, the consequences of doing so could be catastrophic. Limiting the Baloch insurgency in Pakistan is thus an important element for stability in South Asia.