Mercy Corps Report Warns of Potential Worsening of Food Insecurity in Middle East and North Africa

September 28, 2023

A new report by Mercy Corps, a global humanitarian aid organization, warns that disruptions in the Black Sea grain route could exacerbate food insecurity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions. The report, published on September 24, 2023, highlights the dire consequences of food crises in these areas, driven by economic challenges, conflict, and trade dynamics in the Black Sea region.

Food Crises in MENA Regions

According to the report, many countries in the Middle East and North Africa are grappling with severe food crises, primarily due to their inability to afford essential food items and their exposure to the adverse effects of conflicts and trade disruptions in the Black Sea. The situation is further aggravated by dwindling levels of humanitarian funding.

Focus on Vulnerable Regions

The report focuses on several nations in the MENA region, including Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Jordan, Iraq, and the occupied Palestinian Territories (West Bank and Gaza). It also considers North African states such as Tunisia and Egypt.

Persistent Food Insecurity

These regions have been grappling with food insecurity for an extended period, driven by a growing population and increasing demand for essential food products. The report underscores the heavy reliance of these countries on imported grains, particularly those originating from the Black Sea.

Dependency on Black Sea Grain

The report highlights the critical role of Black Sea grain exports in meeting the food demands of these regions. It notes that the dependency on these imports became evident in 2022 when grain shipments from Ukraine faced the risk of complete interruption. This alarming situation was resolved through the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) in July 2022.

Russia’s Role and Recent Developments

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had significant repercussions on grain exports. The report outlines how Russia’s actions, including port blockades, disrupted grain movement from Ukraine to global markets. The BSGI, a UN and Turkey-brokered agreement, allowed the export of 32.9 million tonnes of food from Ukraine. However, in July 2023, Russia refused to renew the initiative, leading to concerns about global food security.

Global Food Inflation Concerns

The report points out that India also banned rice exports in July 2023 to safeguard domestic supply. The combined impact of these shocks could trigger unprecedented food inflation in the MENA region.

Challenges Amplified by Fragility

Countries like Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, heavily dependent on imported food, are particularly vulnerable due to state fragility, economic obstacles, limited domestic production potential, and inadequate government-led mitigation measures. The occupied Palestinian Territories, Tunisia, and Egypt, historically reliant on grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, face similar vulnerabilities.

Additional Economic Challenges

These nations have already been grappling with the economic repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and commodity price hikes resulting from the Ukraine conflict.

A Call for Contingency Planning

In light of these challenges, the researchers emphasize the need for robust contingency planning by aid organizations. Such planning should account for the possibility of global food price shocks and grain shortages in fragile contexts, ensuring the resilience of vulnerable populations in the face of potential crises.

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