India’s economy likely to become 3rd largest by 2030: Study

November 12, 2013

As per a report by Standard Chartered, Indian economy is likely to become the third largest economy by 2030 behind China and the USA. The report says that the world is in the midst of an economic “super-cycle”.

What is a Super-Cycle?

A super-cycle is a period of historically high global growth, which remains for a generation or more, driven by opening up of new markets, rising trade, high rates of investment, urbanization and technological innovation.
As per Standard Chartered’s Super –Cycle report:

By 2030, India is likely to be the 3^rd largest economy with a GDP size of $15 trillion.
China with a GDP of $53.8 trillion is predicted as the biggest economy.
The US has been forecasted to be at 2^nd place with GDP size of $38.5 trillion.
Though some major emerging economies are going through slowdown, a mild set of reforms could set out growth resumption in several large rising economies, including China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Brazil.
Policy designers in India seem to be responding to these concerns, with monetary policy now clearly signaling an anti-inflation position and steps being taken to deal with the funding of the large Current Account Deficit (CAD).
The super-cycle is changing the world economy and the share of emerging market economies could increase to 63% of global GDP by 2030 from current 38%.
The share of economies with growth rates of over 4% – majorly emerging economies – is 37% of the world GDP, as compared to 20% in 1980. This share is expected to reach 56% by 2030.
Asia (excluding Japan) is likely to account for two-fifths of global GDP by 2030.
The monetary value of World Trade is projected to become fourfold to $75 trillion by 2030.
Urbanisation and the growth of the middle classes, especially in Asia, will be the driving forces.
Global growth is expected to revive in 2014-17 as emerging markets implement reforms and developed markets finish restoring balance sheets.
The average global growth is likely to be at 3.5% for 2000-30, better that 3% rate for 1973-2000.
Reforms will be vital for emerging economies to realise their growth potential.