India Likely to Miss WHO and UN Health Targets for Reducing Premature Deaths from NCDs

October 26, 2023

India is expected to fall short of meeting the targets set by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in reducing premature deaths caused by four major Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs). This conclusion stems from an analysis conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

Premature Mortality Reduction

The analysis focuses on the premature mortality rate associated with four major NCDs: cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic respiratory diseases (CRD), and diabetes. It projects a decrease of 13.9% in premature mortality rates for these NCDs from 2010 to 2025 in India. However, this rate of progress falls significantly short of the WHO target of achieving a 25% reduction in premature mortality for these NCDs by 2025, compared to 2010.

The “25 by 25 Target”

The WHO introduced the “25 by 25 target” in 2013 as part of its global NCD monitoring framework. It aimed to reduce premature mortality from these NCDs by 25% by 2025.

Missed SDG Target

The SDG target, which aims to reduce premature deaths from the four major NCDs by a third from 2015 to 2030, is also projected to be missed by India. The researchers estimate a decline of 15.6% from 2015 to 2030, falling short of the SDG goal.

Research Conducted by ICMR

The assessment was carried out by the ICMR’s National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research (NCDIR) in Bengaluru. The researchers utilized publicly available data from population censuses and the Sample Registration System to compute age-standardized premature mortality rates and annual percent change.

Gender and Risk Factors

The study found that the unconditional probability of dying (UPoD) from these NCDs was higher among males, particularly around the age of 44, due to risk factors like tobacco use and alcohol consumption. The reduction in UPoD depends on other risk factors such as physical inactivity, overweight/obesity, inappropriate diet (including high salt intake), and high systolic blood pressure.

Comparative Progress

India’s progress in reducing NCDs is slower compared to lower and middle-income countries, which are achieving a rate of 25.1%. Other countries like Moldova (25%), Peru (23.2% among women), China (38.7%), and Sweden (26.6%) have achieved higher reduction rates.

Future Projections

Based on the analysis, India may potentially reach the WHO target of 25% reduction by 2039 and the SDG target of 33% reduction by 2053.

Impact of Premature NCD Deaths

NCDs account for 66% of all deaths in India, with 22% of these deaths being premature in 2019. These premature deaths have a significant economic and productivity impact, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Surveillance Programs

India has implemented several surveillance programs to address NCDs, including the National Program for Noncommunicable Diseases, the National Tobacco Control Program, the Eat Right India movement, the National Health Policy of 2017, and the National multi-sectoral action plan for prevention and control of Common NCDs 2017-2022. Monitoring the implementation and evaluating the impact of these programs on premature mortality is essential, according to the researchers.

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