India Likely to Experience Above Normal Rainfall This Monsoon: IMD

The India Meteorological Department has announced that India is likely to experience above-normal rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season, with La Nina conditions expected to set in by August-September.

This prediction is based on historical data showing above-normal rainfall during previous La Nina events following El Nino periods. El Nino conditions, associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, prevailed in 2023 when the country received below-average rainfall. The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall, crucial for the agriculture sector, which accounts for about 14 percent of the country’s GDP. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions and low snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere are favourable factors for the Indian southwest monsoon, according to the IMD.

The IMD chief also highlighted that climate change is increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system, leading to more intense heavy rain events and frequent droughts and floods.

Key Factors on Monsoon Forecasting in India

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall in India: El Nino, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass.

El Nino

El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming can have significant impacts on global weather patterns, leading to increased rainfall in some regions and droughts in others. El Niño events tend to occur irregularly every few years and can last for several months to a couple of years. These events can have a major influence on agriculture, fisheries, and economies worldwide, making them crucial to monitor and understand.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate phenomenon characterized by abnormal sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean. It consists of two poles – a positive pole with warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean and a negative pole with cooler waters in the eastern Indian Ocean.

The IOD affects the distribution of rainfall in regions surrounding the Indian Ocean, influencing monsoons and weather patterns. It can lead to droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events in affected areas. Understanding and monitoring the IOD is important for predictive weather forecasting.

Snow cover over northern Himalayas

Snow cover over the northern Himalayas refers to the layer of snow that accumulates on the mountains in the region during the winter months. This snow cover is essential for maintaining the water supply in the rivers that flow from the Himalayas, as it acts as a reservoir that gradually melts and replenishes the rivers during the warmer months. The snow cover also plays a crucial role in regulating the temperature in the region, affecting the climate and ecosystems of the area.

Month: Current Affairs - April, 2024

Category: Science & Technology Current Affairs