IIT-G study on Extreme Weather Events

November 19, 2022

Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar published a study of sequential extreme weather events – heatwaves in the summer and extreme rainfall in summer monsoon seasons over the same regions from 1951 to 2020.

What are the key findings of the report?

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events like flooding and heatwaves in India manifold
Sequential weather extremes in India have severe implications on agricultural production, public health and infrastructure.
The risks will increase because of the warming climate and variability in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a recurring climate pattern that changes the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Oceans.
Climate mitigation and reduction in vulnerability can minimise the risks associated with the extreme weather events.
Mega heatwaves that occurred during the summers of 1995 and 1998 severely impacted 20 per cent and 8 per cent of India.
The area affected by the sequential extremes is higher during the positive phase (El Nino) than the negative phase.
If the global mean temperature rises above 1.5°C from the preindustrial level, a fraction of the total population and urban area exposed to sequential extremes will increase rapidly.
By the end of the 21^st century (2071-2100), heatwave duration is expected to increase from 3 days in the current climate to 11 days under the lowest emission scenario.
The duration of heatwaves will increase by 33 days by the end of this century at the highest emissions scenario.
In India, the number of people exposed to sequential extremes will increase significantly with a rise in global mean temperature above the pre-industrial level. For example, median population exposure increases from 27 percent at 1.5°C to 36 percent and 45 percent at 3 and 4 degree Celsius global warming levels respectively.
In India, improving of socio-economic livelihood and infrastructure is mitigate the impact of extreme weather events.