Growing “North-South” Disparity in Population & Demographic Divide

The 2011 Census has confirmed the striking demographic imbalance between northern and southern states of India. Some of the facts which highlight the growing ‘North-South’ disparity in India are the following:

The average decadal growth (2001-2011) in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar, the two states which accounts for around a quarter of India’s population was found to be strikingly high at around 25%. On the other hand the decadal growth between 2001 and 2011 in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala combined was found to be around half of what UP and Bihar had accounted. For instance, the state of Kerala which has one of the best human indicators in the country grew by just under 5%, while Bihar grew by over 25%.

However, for the first time, a fall in population growth rates in the northern states has been registered in the Census 2011. Northern States continue to grow at a rate above the southern states and also above the national average.

Of the projected increase of 371 million estimated to take place between 2001 and 2026, around 187 million is expected to occur in 7 northern states, namely, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttrakhand. That is the population growth of 50.4% is expected to take place in northern states while the corresponding figure for the southern states is only 12.6%. It is expected that the population growth in BIMARU States is expected to be more than double than that of the southern states. As a consequence, good progress achieved in family planning in the northern states is not enough to compensate for the slow progress made in the northern states.

Challenges

Political Representation

The growing north-south disparity has political consequences in particular to the system of political representation. In the Westminster model of electoral system which we have been following, everyone’s vote is significant. So, the 543 territorial constituencies for the Lok Sabha elections are supposed to have as much as possible the same number of individual voters in order to have parity. As per Census 2011, every parliamentarian must represent around 2.2 million Indians. The State of UP with a population of 200 million and 80 Lok Sabha seats has only one Lok Sabha representative for every 2.5 million people. On the other hand, the state of Kerala with a population of 33 million and 20 seats in the Lok Sabha has roughly one Lok Sabha representative for every 1.65 million people. Similarly, the corresponding figure for Tamil Nadu is 1.84 million. This trend will give rise to disproportion in political representation. It will continue to grow and is expected to get widened in the next 30 years as the process of delimiting constituencies have been postponed until the first census exercise after 2026.

Prosperity Gap

Unfortunately, in India, wealth generation is not uniform across all Indian states. As a matter of fact, northern states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh (BIMARU) are registering lower single-digit growth rates whereas the south Indian states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala (TAKK) are registering magnificent growth rates.

In case of the BIMARU states, their exploding demographic growth has nullified the economic gains achieved by these states. As a result, “prosperity Quotient” of BIMARU states have lagged behind that of the TAKK regions in the coming years. The prosperity quotient is defined as the total wealth generated in a state divided by its total population. This will be a worrisome trend.

Way Forward

Improve Female Literacy Rates

The literacy rates of females in BIMARU states need to be increased. As it is proved beyond doubt that female literacy is associated with sustainable economic development. It is important that there is a need to boost the female literacy rates in BIMARU states.

Infrastructure Development

It is estimated that India needs to invest at least $1.5 trillion in the coming decade in order to remain globally competitive. BIMARU states need to upgrade their infrastructure in terms of roads, airports, highways etc. To speed up the foreign investment inflows into the BIMARU states, it is important for the union government to delegate more foreign investment approval authority to local governments.

Integration into National Innovation Networks

It is important to facilitate interstate idea exchange BIMARU and TAKK states in addition to traditional commerce. The union government should facilitate in building these National Innovation Networks.

Conclusion

China is paying a heavy price due to the impoverishment of its hinterland when compared with its prosperous coastal regions. To avoid a similar dichotomy, India should work towards bridging the gap between northern and Southern States.