Global Fertility Declines
Recent demographic studies reveal global decline in fertility rates across 204 countries from 1950 to 2021, with projections indicating this trend will continue. Notably, India has experienced a sharp drop in its Total Fertility Rate (TFR), raising concerns about socio-economic implications, especially in southern states.
Global Fertility Rates
Fertility rates are declining worldwide. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is projected to remain low, even with pro-natal policies. Countries face challenges related to ageing populations and labour shortages.
India’s Fertility Decline
- India’s TFR fell from 6.18 in the 1950s to 1.9 in 2021.
- This is below the replacement level of 2.1.
- Projections suggest a further decline to 1.04 by 2100.
Factors Contributing to Decline
Key factors include increased female literacy, workforce participation, and changing societal attitudes towards marriage and motherhood. Women are increasingly prioritising careers over motherhood, leading to later marriages.
Impact of Migration
Young Indians are migrating abroad for education and job opportunities. This trend contributes to declining fertility rates as many choose to settle overseas, impacting population growth.
Consequences in Southern States
States like Kerala are experiencing rapid demographic transitions. An ageing population and declining young workforce are pressing issues. The state achieved replacement level fertility in 1988, leading to socio-economic challenges.
Kerala’s Demographic Challenges
Kerala faces high labour wages and an ageing demographic. Migration of educated youth is leading to a shrinking workforce. Projections indicate that by 2036, the elderly population will surpass that of children.
International Comparisons
Other Asian nations are also witnessing fertility rates drop below one. Countries like South Korea have struggled to reverse this trend despite investments.
Future Considerations
Declining fertility rates may be irreversible. Socio-economic policies that enhance job prospects and support the elderly population are crucial for mitigating the impacts of low fertility rates.
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Month: Current Affairs - January, 2025
Category: Reports & Indexes Current Affairs
Sujay Rao Mandavilli
January 21, 2025 at 6:37 pmPronatalism – encouraging people to have more children, is extremely dangerous.
We are in the middle of a Holocene extinction event, and the earth is stretched to its limits.
Don’t believe right wing propaganda blindly. Most countries with low birth rates are doing very well
economically, while most countries with high birth rates are doing badly (MOST!). It is the quality of
human resources that counts. There is a population composition fallacy we must understand. Deciding on the number of children is a personal affair, and governments don’t have a say here. Trying to raise birth rates artificially has mostly never worked. Even if it is done, it may have unintended consequences like increasing the supply of unskilled labour, particularly in cases such as India. The theory of demographic dividend has also been criticized severely, and has many limitations. It will also send out wrong signals to other states which are grappling with high population growth. Instead, improve the quality of education which is deplorable to say the least – this is the government’s priority, and most Indian state governments are not doing their job. Also focus on skilling
and vocational training. Treat low fertility as the new normal, and change economic development models accordingly. There is also a chance that fertility rates will increase slightly if societies become more prosperous. Please read my papers by typing Sujay Rao Mandavilli in google search.