Geopolitical Perspectives on West Asia and its implications for India
The most important geopolitical factor in West Asia is the sectarian strife between Sunni and Shia camps represented by Saudi Arabia and Iran respectively. The competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran for attaining regional hegemony and supremacy has led to the Syrian crisis and instability in the West Asian region.
Background
In order to understand and analyze the present scenario, it is imperative to know the broad background and history of West Asian nations. All of the West Asian nations (except Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Yemen) came under the rule of European colonial powers directly or as Mandates under the League of Nations after the World War I.
After World War II, all West Asian nations became independent in due course of time. Majority of the countries aligned with the Western powers along with Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia. U.S. became an important key player in the West Asian security landscape. Another important happening was the creation of a new state, Israel, by Great Britain to provide a strategic foothold for the Western powers in West Asia.
Iran and Saudi Arabia representing the Shia and Sunni sects of Islam respectively was close allies of the U.S. This arrangement ensured that there is no sectarian strife within Islam, which had the ability to create instability in the region.
1979- A WATERSHED YEAR
The year 1979 became a watershed year in the history of West Asia because of two important events, namely the emergence of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
Major reaction for the above two events has been the deliberate creation of the modern jihad by the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to fight the soviets, which in turn fuelled Islam related extremism and militancy. In due course of time, it found institutional manifestation in Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Both these entities finally turned against their creators.
IRAN
The Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 made the U.S. and Iran the bitterest of enemies all of a sudden. The new regime in Iran rejected the influence and interference of any foreign country in its affairs. Because of the above this development, U.S. imposed sanctions and other Western countries followed the suit. U.N. too imposed sanctions after the discovery of Iran’s covert nuclear program in 2003.
Iran, on the other hand started to forge a very strong alliance with anti-Western Syrian regime; created Hezbollah in Lebanon and patronized Hamas in Gaza. Both Hezbollah and Hamas has been characterized as terrorist groups by Western and several Arab countries. End of Saddam’s reign by U.S. led to the formation of a shia government in Iraq, which has become an ally of Iran.
Recently sanctions have been lifted against Iran after the signing of nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 in July 2015, which became operational in January 2016.
SYRIA
Protests in Syria broke out in March 2011 demanding political reform and there were no calls for regime change. However, President Assad cracked down the revolt very harshly, thereby escalating it into a civil war. Countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey began to intervene by facilitating the infiltration of armed jihadists in to Syria with the intention to overthrow the regime and its support to Iran. The U.S. and other western countries also started to support rebels as they too wanted to overthrow Assad regime.
All Arab countries except Lebanon and Tunisia are ruled by autocrats or by military dictators. So legitimizing regime change because Assad was a dictator is not widely accepted. The real problem is Assad is an ally of Iran and he belongs to a shia sect, ruling over a Sunni majority country. He also allowed Russia to have a strategic naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean coast.
Presently, the Islamic State acquired more than 2/5th of the total territory of Syria, including most of its oil producing areas.
Russia has started its military involvement in Syria since September 2015. Also, after Islamic State attacks in Turkey and Paris, the Western countries are now more interested in confronting the Islamic State rather than efforts to oust Assad.
Negotiations seems to be the only way forward as opposed to a military solution to the problems in Syria
THE ISLAMIC STATE
U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and its subsequent military occupation provided a push to the rise of militant Islam. Iraq historically was always ruled by Sunnis even though it had 65% Shia population. U.S. invasion has dramatically reversed the trend and resulted in the formation of a Shia government in Iraq since 2006. The Sunnis were very angry. Demobilized government officials suddenly found themselves unemployed and joined anti-government forces. This led to the formation of Al-Qeada in Iraq(AQI).
AQI at its peak in 2007 also formed a quasi-government and ruled brutally following harsh Islamic percepts. This led to a large revolt which led to the fall of AQI. The hatred against AQI was so immense that even large number of Sunni population also participated in the revolt.
The defeated AQI regrouped in Syria and changed itself in to Islamic State of Iraq and Syria(ISIS) and returned to Iraq in early 2014. It met spectacular success and overran northern Iraq and also captured many towns including Mosul( Iraq’s second largest city). ISIS also announced the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate, with its capital in Raqqa in Syria. It rules strictly in accordance with the Sharia law.
The Islamic State has declared war against the US in particular and the Western countries and pro West Arab regimes like Saudi Arabia in general. In addition, it has also declared war against all other Islamist militant groups including Al-Qaeda.
IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
India’s relation with the GCC countries is cordial. GCC countries have become India’s prominent oil and gas suppliers. It is estimated that 80 lakh Indians live and work in these countries and send annual remittances of more than $35 billion to India. So, the policies of these countries in general and the policies of Saudi Arabia and Iran, in particular will have deep impact on India’s well being and security. The GCC countries and Iran are the only areas in West Asia, where some sort of bloody conflict is not raging.
India has excellent relations with Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia simultaneously. India’s non-interventionist policy in regional disputes has resulted in finding many allies for it than the foes.
It is also believed that threat posed by Islamic State to India is less significant than the one posed by Pakistani ISI sponsored terrorism. However, with huge Indian diaspora in West Asian region the area remains a huge concern for India.
