Food Outlook Report

June 19, 2023

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) recently released the latest Food Outlook Report, revealing significant trends and concerns regarding food imports. The report emphasizes the projected decline in food imports by vulnerable countries, while also highlighting the impact on purchasing capacity and the overall global food import bill.

Decline in Food Imports by Vulnerable Countries

According to the FAO report, vulnerable countries are expected to experience a decline in food imports this year. The projected decline in the food import bill for the least developed countries stands at 1.5%. Additionally, net food-importing developing countries may witness a more significant decline of 4.9% in food import volumes. This decline raises concerns about the purchasing capacity of these countries, potentially leading to food security challenges.

Slower Growth Rate and Rising Food Import Bill

While vulnerable countries face a decline in food imports, the global food import bill is still forecasted to reach a record high in 2023. The FAO estimates that the global food import bill will amount to $1.98 trillion, representing a 1.5% increase compared to 2022. However, this growth rate is significantly slower than the substantial increases observed in previous years, such as 11% in 2022 and 18% in 2021.

Impact of High Quotations on Demand

The FAO report highlights the impact of higher quotations for certain food items on global demand. Fruits, vegetables, sugar, and dairy products have experienced increased quotations, dampening demand, particularly in economically vulnerable countries. The higher costs of these essential food items contribute to cost-of-living pressures, potentially leading to ongoing challenges in 2023.

Changes in Rice and Wheat Production

The report also sheds light on anticipated changes in rice and wheat production. Rice production is expected to rise by 1.3% in the upcoming year, reaching 523.5 million tonnes. However, international trade in rice is predicted to decrease by 4.3% in volume terms, totaling 53.6 million tonnes. On the other hand, wheat production is anticipated to decline by 3% compared to its all-time high in 2022. The expected decrease is attributed to lower planted areas in the Russian Federation and Australia, influenced by extreme weather events.

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