CSO: India’s Economy to grow by 4.9% in 2013-14

February 16, 2014

As per the advanced estimates released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2013-14 is estimated at 4.9% as compared to the growth rate of 4.5% in 2012-13.

The advance estimates of national income at constant (2004-05) and current prices, for the financial year 2013-14

Based on expected level of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation(DAC), Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor general of India (CAG).
Per capita income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2013-14 is probably to attain a level of Rs 39,961 as compared to the first revised estimate for the year 2012-13 of Rs 38,856. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 2.8% as against the previous year’s estimate of 2.1%.
Per capita income at current prices during 2013-14 is estimated to Rs 74,920 as compared to Rs 67,839 during 2012-13, shows a rise of 10.4%.
The rates of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 28.5% and 32.5%. (GFCF is an indicator of investment)
The rate of expenditure on valuables at current prices has gone down from 2.6% in 2012-13 to 2.1% in 2013-14.

Key sectors that have taken into account while estimating the of national income at constant (2004-05) and current prices, for the financial year 2013-14 are:

Agriculture, forestry and fishing: Will probably show a growth of 4.6% in its GDP during 2013-14, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 1.4%.
Manufacturing: Expected to contract 0.2% in this financial year compared with growth of 1.1% in the previous year.
Services sector (finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors): Expected to grow 11.2% this year compared with 10.9% in 2012-13.
Mining and quarrying: Probably to contract 1.9% as compared to 2.2% decline in production 2012-13.
Construction: Will probably improve to 1.7% from 1.1% in 2012-13.
Trade, hotels, transport and communication: Probably improve to 3.5% in this financial year.
Electricity, gas and water production: The growth in these sectors is likely to improve to 6% in 2013-14 from 2.3 per cent in 2012-13.
Community social and personal services growth would be better at 7.4% as compared to 5.3% previously.

Note: The Chairman of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, Mr. C. Rangarajan described the latest estimate of 4.9% for 2013-14 as an encouraging indication that economic slowdown is over.

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