Climate Change Threatens Global Crop Production and Diversity

March 7, 2025

Recent studies highlight the severe impact of climate change on global agriculture. As temperatures rise beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, crop production in low latitude areas is at risk. An analysis published in Nature Food reveals alarming trends. The research, involving institutions from Finland, Germany, and Switzerland, examined 30 major crops under various warming scenarios.

Impact of Global Warming on Crop Production

Global warming exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius could jeopardise half of the crop production in low latitude regions. The study indicates that if temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, 10-31% of current agricultural areas will shift to unsuitable climatic conditions. This shift could escalate to 20-48% under a 3-degree Celsius scenario.

Defining Climatic Niches

Researchers defined the ‘climatic niche’ for each crop based on current climate conditions. They utilised the Safe Climatic Space (SCS) concept. This concept maps the climatic space of major crop production areas using three parameters – annual precipitation, bio temperature, and aridity. When cropland moves outside the SCS, existing agricultural management practices may no longer apply.

Regional Risks of Crop Production

The analysis identified regions at risk. In the Middle East and North Africa, nearly 50% of cropland is already at risk under 1.5 degrees Celsius. This figure could rise to 69% under 3 degrees Celsius. Similarly, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa could see 60% of their cropland at risk. In contrast, the Northern Hemisphere shows lower risks, with 80% of North American cropland and 77% of European cropland remaining secure.

Decline in Crop Diversity

The study forecasts decline in crop diversity, particularly near the Equator. Areas like sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia could see over 70% of current cropland losing crop diversity if warming exceeds 2 degrees Celsius. There is a projection that by 2100, 30% of global food crop production may face climate conditions that do not currently support major crop production.

Challenges for Food Security

The risk of reduced croplands for essential crops such as wheat, rice, maize, and soybean threatens food security. The study warns that the adverse effects in low-latitude regions cannot be mitigated by simple adaptations in agricultural practices. It stresses the need for robust climate governance and innovative adaptation strategies, particularly in low-income countries.

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