Climate Change Drastically Increases Drought Likelihood in Middle East

November 10, 2023

A new report reveals that climate change has made the three-year extreme drought in Syria, Iraq, and Iran significantly more likely.

Climate change has made the extreme drought about 25 times more likely in Syria and Iraq, and 16 times more likely in Iran.
In a 1.2 degrees Celsius cooler world, the extreme drought would have been considered normal.
Experts suggest that this drought would not have occurred without climate change, primarily driven by the burning of oil, gas, and coal.

The drought has had dire consequences on the livelihoods and health of people in Iran, Syria, and Iraq.
The regions have experienced up to 95% below-average rainfall since the winter of 2020.
In rural Syria, the drought displaced nearly two million people, with 60% of them facing food insecurity.
Iran has faced water shortages, triggering tensions with neighboring countries, and causing food prices to rise. Iraq is also dealing with water insecurity.

The drought has led to various impacts, including wildfires, air pollution, and the spread of water-borne diseases such as cholera.
Conflict and security concerns have further reduced people’s ability to respond to the drought in Syria and Iraq.

If global warming reaches 2°C above the preindustrial era, similar droughts are expected to occur about twice as often as they do now.
Climate change-driven prolonged heat plays a crucial role in turning droughts into extreme events, even when low levels of rainfall are not significantly influenced by climate change.

Researchers used weather data and climate models to compare how the drought event changed between today’s climate with approximately 1.2°C of global warming and the cooler preindustrial climate.
The event’s primary driver was the strong increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET), which represents the loss of water through plant transpiration and surface evaporation.
Other factors such as land degradation, desertification, water stress, and conflict have also contributed to the region’s vulnerability to drought.

The findings differ from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projection, which had low confidence in drought occurring in the region.
Attribution studies indicate that higher temperatures are turning many droughts into extreme events, even if climate change does not significantly affect rainfall levels.