China’s Population Falls Again in 2023

January 19, 2024

China’s population declined for a second straight year in 2023, falling by 2.75 million to 1.409 billion as plunging birth rates and COVID-19 fatalities accelerate a downturn with profound economic consequences.

Fastest Decline Since 1961 Famine

The 2023 population drop exceeds 2022’s fall, which ended six decades of growth since the Great Famine under Mao Zedong. An abrupt lifting of tight zero-COVID curbs in late 2022 led to a dramatic viral resurgence contributing to deaths.

Plummeting Birth Rates Over Decades

China’s birth rate has plunged for years due to the prior one-child policy and rapid urbanization. As families migrated to cities, the cost of raising children increased, dampening growth.

Pandemic Policies Further Weaken Economy

COVID curbs disrupted manufacturing and consumer spending through early 2022. When restrictions ended, youth unemployment surged, wages dropped and a property sector crisis intensified, disincentivizing childbearing.

Fewer Workers and Consumers

The data compounds concerns around China’s dimming economic prospects with a shrinking workforce and less domestic consumption. This may accelerate ongoing supply chain shifts to alternative markets like India.

Aging Crisis Challenge for Beijing

China may lose over 100 million people by 2050 per UN estimates – more than triple previous projections. The swelling retirement population stresses the pension system and local governments.

Comparisons with Asian Peers

China’s 2023 birth rate of 6.39 per 1,000 people lags regional peers like Japan and South Korea despite the end of one-child policies, highlighting generational shifts in family planning attitudes.

India Surpasses China in Population

India overtook China as the world’s largest country by population size in 2022. This shift and economic contrasts are prompting debates over relocating some China-based manufacturing.

Slowing Economy Deters Childbearing

High youth joblessness, declining real wages across sectors, and ongoing property market weakness further dissuaded young Chinese couples from having children in 2023 as economic uncertainty persists.

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