Autonomous Weapons and Robotic Warfare: Implications for India

The third Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) Meeting of Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) was held in Geneva from 11 to 15 April 2016. Here are some important notes on the same.

What are Autonomous Weapons Systems?

Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS) as defined by the U.S. Department of Defense is “a weapon system(s) that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.” The AWS has the potential to alter radically the nature of war. These weapons will have the capability to select and engage the targets on their own. Although, fully autonomous weapons do not have significant presence in any country’s arsenal, many people observe that their development and deployment may be inevitable in the future.

What is UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)?

UNIDIR is one among the first international actors to address issues related to the Weaponization of Increasingly Autonomous Technologies in the context of security and disarmament. The Institute has been undertaking dedicated work on autonomy since 2013.

What is Artificial Intelligence?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a branch of computer science that emphasizes the creation of intelligent machines that work and reacts like humans, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, translation and the capacity to process vast quantities of information, which are usually associated with humans.

How Artificial intelligence will shape our future weapons?

Rapid advances in robotics, machine-learning and big-data analytics are transforming the modern warfare and at once driving the so-called “fourth industrial revolution”. Mobilization and deployment of these technologies will shape the balance of economic and military power among the leading powers in the coming decades. At the core of all this is the artificial intelligence (AI). While autonomous weapons cannot replace humans any time soon, AI technologies have the potential to augment our ability to handle very complex military tasks more quickly. It’s this man-machine interface that will be at the core of the new military revolution that’s unfolding.

What will be the implications of AI?

AI will have sweeping impact on the civilian and military domains and will be the key for the economic and national security decisions in the future. The US, for instance has branded the new approach as “Third Offset Strategy”. The other two earlier offsets were tactical nuclear weapons and precision-guided conventional munitions. US hopes to leverage AI to America’s strategic advantage over rivals like China and Russia as well as against sophisticated terror groups like the Islamic State. It hopes AI and associated technologies will help America counter the quantitative superiority enjoyed by Russia and China in Eurasia and the Western Pacific.

What is the way forward for India?

• For India too, AI might be critical in bridging the existing gap in conventional military capabilities with China. With the defence budget four times greater than India, China has devoted considerable energies to transform the organization and doctrine of its armed forces.
• AI is also likely to play an important role in countering Pakistan’s low-intensity proxy wars through terrorist outfits like the Lashkar-e-Taiba.
• Collaboration with US:
• Although, India has invested in the military research on AI and robotics, the changes in its security environment and the technological advances around the world requires a high-level political commitment and calls for long-term partnerships, especially with the US.
• In Geneva, both India and the US did not support an outright pre-emptive ban on the development and deployment of autonomous weapons. Both the countries have instead advocated for a prudent approach to the regulation of autonomous weapons.
• With both the countries committed to a stable Asian balance of power and in combating violent extremism, the development and deployment of AI technologies becomes inevitable.
• The expansive role of the private sector in the development of AI and associated technologies in both countries is an incentive to strengthen the partnership over the development of AI. US have entailed a more active collaboration with Silicon Valley in shaping the Third Offset Strategy. It has recently appointed Google’s Eric Schmidt as the chairman of a new Defence Innovation Advisory Board. It is worthy to note, India’s own computer industry is deeply tied to Silicon Valley.
• Unlike in the earlier military revolutions, India possesses capabilities and knowledge in the emerging AI sector. Engagement with the US defence establishment can be a first step towards strategic development of AI and associated technologies.

Conclusion

In the end, success depends on India’s commitment and ability to formulate a domestic policy framework for the promotion of AI and associated technologies for civilian and military uses. Effective use of these technologies holds the key to address our key challenges associated with national security, economic growth and acquire an effective voice in the international deliberations and regulation of autonomous weapons and robotic warfare. India was slow in reacting to the impact of the cyber revolution. So, it can’t afford to commit the same error in relation to the AI transformation.