A Third of Global Population to Live in Dangerously Hot Areas

May 23, 2023

The alarming impact of climate change continues to be a pressing global issue. According to a study conducted by researchers from Exeter University’s Global Systems Institute, if current trends persist, the world is on track to witness a significant rise in average global temperatures by the end of the century.

Projected Rise in Average Global Temperatures

The study reveals that by the end of the century, the average global temperatures are expected to rise by 2.7C. This staggering increase poses severe consequences for both human populations and the environment.

Threshold for Dangerously Hot Areas

Researchers defined dangerously hot areas as those with a mean annual temperature above 29C. Such regions are particularly vulnerable to adverse effects associated with extreme heat.

Countries Falling into the Extreme Heat Zone

The study highlights several countries that will fall into the extreme heat zone. Burkina Faso, Mali, Qatar, Aruba, and the United Arab Emirates are among the nations projected to experience high temperatures outside the human niche. This designation raises concerns about the well-being and safety of the populations residing in these regions.

Impact on Affected Countries

In terms of the number of affected inhabitants, India, Nigeria, and Indonesia are anticipated to bear the brunt of the heat crisis. Disturbingly, it is estimated that 600 million individuals in India, 300 million in Nigeria, and 100 million in Indonesia will fall out of the human niche later in this century. This staggering statistic emphasizes the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation measures.

Wealth as a Determining Factor

The ability of countries and their citizens to withstand extreme heat largely depends on their economic resources. Wealthier nations, such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, possess greater capacity to implement protective measures in the face of escalating temperatures. In contrast, economically disadvantaged countries like Burkina Faso and Mali face significant challenges in safeguarding their populations from the heat-related risks.

Countries Varying in Economic Status

The United Arab Emirates and Qatar, two of the world’s richest countries per capita, are mentioned in the study as having the means to combat extreme heat effectively. On the other end of the spectrum, Burkina Faso and Mali, among the poorest nations, encounter additional obstacles due to limited resources.

Positive Impact of Mitigation

If global warming can be limited to 1.5C through substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the number of people affected by dangerous heat in India, Nigeria, and Indonesia can be significantly reduced. In this scenario, projections estimate that 90 million individuals in India, 40 million in Nigeria, and 5 million in Indonesia would be spared from the perils of extreme heat.

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