Opinion Polls in India and ECI Guidelines

Pre-election opinion polls and exit polls have become a regular feature in the last one and half decades within the Indian electoral landscape. Opinion polls are conducted by polling agencies and disseminated widely by the electronic and print media

ECI guidelines

The earliest attempt to regulate opinion polls was made in 1998 when the ECI took an overall view of the situation and issued an order laying down “Guidelines for Publication and Dissemination of Results of Opinion Polls/Exit Polls”, including government-controlled electronic media, in connection with the conduct of opinion polls and exit polls by them.

Currently, opinion polls are barred from being published in electronic media for 48 hours prior to an election in that polling area under Section 126(1)(b) of the RP Act, 1951. The contravention of Section 126(1)(b) is punishable under Section 126(2) with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with fine, or with both.

The ECI has strongly argued for further restriction on publication of opinion polls. Such restrictions are necessary because Section 126(1)(b) applies only to electronic media. This essentially means that an anomalous situation is created where the publication of the findings of opinion polls in print media remains unregulated.

Issues and challenges

Effects on the purity of the electoral process

Legitimate apprehensions regarding the accuracy of opinion polls. There are a number of instances where election results predicted by such polls turned out to be incorrect, by a large margin.

Potential of opinion polls to influence voters

The central justification for the regulation of opinion polls is the preservation of the sanctity and integrity of the electoral process. Concerns on this count arise on the grounds that opinion polls are able to influence electoral behaviour and distort electoral outcomes. This refers to the case where information predicting the victory of a candidate could lead to votes being switched in his or her favour and away from other candidates. Second, voters may favour candidates not predicted to win, so that the prediction or appearance of success undermines the actual outcome. On the other hand, an argument against opinion polls has been that information from opinion polls confuses voters.

Independence of polling agencies

The independence of the agencies/organisations is threatened by the possibility of opinion polls being manipulated to favour certain political parties, or through bias in choosing sample sizes. More importantly, for a first-past-the-post system like ours, this can spell drastic changes in election results and hence, the need for regulation of opinion polls should be urgently addressed.

Issue of robustness in findings

While the findings of opinion polls in India are largely considered to be fallible,it has been argued that a few instances of manipulation, in whatever manner they exist, do not make a case for an outright ban. Instead, they call for better regulation of opinion polls a total prohibition on publication and dissemination of results of opinion polls may amount to an infringement of the right under Article 19(1)(a) of the Constitution.

Suggestions and way forward

The ban on opinion polls in the electronic media does not extend to the print media and section 126(1)(b) of RPA, should be amended to prevent the publication, publicity, or dissemination of any election matter by print or electronic media. The regulation of opinion polls is necessary to ensure the credentials of the organisations conducting the poll is made known to the public. Further, public has a chance to assess the validity of the methods used in conducting the opinion polls and the public is made adequately aware that opinion polls are in the nature of forecasts.