Nuclear Ambitions of North Korea

The international community has expressed deep concern over the North Korea’s announcement of hydrogen bomb test on January 6, 2016. It is the fourth time that North Korea has conducted a nuclear test; the earlier nuclear tests were conducted in 2006, 2009, and 2013.

Significance of the recent test and the global reaction

If the hydrogen bomb test was really conducted as claimed by North Korea, it would be a big step up in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Unlike atom bomb that works on the principle of atomic fission, hydrogen bomb works by harnessing energy created by fusion of hydrogen atoms together. This makes hydrogen bombs more powerful than atom bomb. But experts in the field are sceptical about North Korea’s claim because the seismic disturbances from the recent test were similar to past tests. There may be possibility that North Korea used a sort of in-between weapon called a “boosted” nuclear device involving a small amount of fusion activity to boost the explosive capability of a fission bomb. Irrespective of the material tested, the test shows the expanding nuclear knowhow of North Korea.

The UN Security Council (UNSC) has declared to impose new sanctions against North Korea. Japan considered it as a serious threat to its security and declared to strengthen its anti-missile defence systems for protection from a North Korean attack. India had expressed ‘deep concern’ that North Korea once again acted in violation of its international commitments. India concerns about proliferation links between North Korea and its neighbourhood (referring to Pakistan) region. China has called for “all relevant parties” to exercise restraint.

The strong reaction has come from South Korea. It has resumed theloudspeaker broadcasts against North Korea.

History of North Korea’s nuclear program and Songun policy

Since its creation in 1945 to till 1991, North Korea was provided with large scale economic aids, defence and military assistance by the Soviet Union. With collapse of Soviet Union, North Korea lost its protector. Though China provided some assistance, North Korea knows that it wouldn’t match to Soviet assistance. It was during this period, North Korea started its nuclear program. The United States negotiated with North Korea to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. In 1994, both countries announced a deal called the Agreed Framework. But the deal was not successful. In 1994, North Korea faced severe famine with heavy death toll. The collapse of Soviet aid and trade, and the famine collapsed North Korea’s economy.

Faced with the situation to secure the country, the new leader Kim Jong II announced a policy called Songun (“military first”). The policy is viewed as a strategy to strengthen the military. The people of North Korea were convinced that the military was their protector, not the socio-economic reforms. As the nation’s legitimacy is depended on its military, acquiring the most powerful weapons (nuclear weapons) became more important. With George Bush becoming the President of the US in 2001, the Sunshine policy of South Korea and the Agreed Framework were rejected by the Bush government, and North Korea was treated as a rogue state. It was followed by North Korea conducting nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, and 2013. In spite of its international isolation and economic deprivation, North Korea has maintained status quo on its nuclear program. The North Korean leadership has convinced itself that its existence as an autonomous state derived from its possession of nuclear weapons. It contrasts its existence to the fate of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Gadhafi in Libya, contending that nuclear weapons are essential to ensure the regime’s survival.

Issue with armistice agreement

The Korean War from 1950-53 ended with armistice agreement rather than a peace treaty. The armistice agreement was signed by the United States led United Nations Command (UNC) on one side, and military commanders from North Korea and China on the other side. South Korea was not a signatory. During the war, America fought on South Korea’s side whereas China for the North Korea. The armistice was signed to ensure that no party in the war should acquire the capability to commence hostilities. The agreement was a temporary measure aimed at a ceasefire “until a final peaceful settlement is achieved”. Decades over, but the parties are yet to sign a peace agreement to put an end to the war. North Korea repeatedly asked for signing a peace treaty by the three parties and South Korea to put an end to war.  North Korea believes that peace treaty will give it the security it needs, given the US ambition of “regime change” in North Korea.

But the United States repudiated clause 13(d) of the armistice, get it approved by UN, and brought a nuclear-tipped missile to the Korean peninsula in 1958. Since then North Korea declared that it will not abide by the armistice and has refused to participate in six-nation consultations involving the US, China, Japan, Russia and the two Koreas. North Korea has said it could end its nuclear tests if the US agrees to sign a peace treaty and stops its joint military exercises with South Korea. The US is unwilling to sign a peace treaty until North Korea’s denuclearisation. The stalemate is going on.

Analysis: Does the growing nuclear ambitions of North Korea points to failure of global community to put pressure on North Korea not to acquire nuclear weapons?

North Korea’s biggest test to date has shown the failure of previous sanctions to halt its nuclear progress. As China is unwilling to intervene into the issue, there is little hope that the new round of sanctions will achieve the goal. Experts opine that part of the problem with existing sanctions is that they are relatively narrow when compared to the US sanctions against Iran that helped to halt its nuclear program. Sanctions on Iran such as measures against foreign banks have not been imposed on North Korea. The reason is fear of diplomatic clash with China, whose banks are believed to be used by North Korea. In spite of UN reports about human rights violations in North Korea, the US has not imposed human rights based sanctions against North Korea. China, while indirectly impacting on US sanctions, has also consistently wants to limit the scope of UN sanctions against North Korea. The implementation of sanctions is also questionable as a missile tested by North Korea in 2012 points to similarities with Chinese model.

Though China hardened its approach towards after the 2013 test, the reaction after the recent has been milder than in 2013. China’s stance of friendly relations with North Korea with six-party talks may prevent the chances of taking strong fresh sanctions. North Korea on its part has moved to cash transactions to reduce its exposure to economic sanctions. The fact is that only China is in a position to put pressure against North Korea since 88% of North Korea’s foreign trade is with China. Unless the strong sanctions are translated into reality, the world cannot prevent North Korea’s next nuclear test.