Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline
The idea of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline (TAPI) has been around for two decades but its fate has remained uncertain due to political uncertainty in Afghanistan, Indo-Pak Relations, Af-Pak tensions, slow down in global energy markets, cost escalations etc. However, despite of all these, the construction work finally takes off as leaders of four countries participated in the groundbreaking ceremony in December 2015.
Important Facts
The proposed TAPI project involves construction of a 1,800-km pipeline from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Asian Development Bank is playing an important role in its construction. The natural gas pipeline aims to export up to 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year from Turkmenistan to the three other countries over a 30 year period. The pipeline will transport Caspian Sea natural gas from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh field. This field is world’s second largest field holding gas reserves of 16 trillion cubic feet.
The pipeline will run to Herat and Kandahar provinces of Afghanistan before entering the Pakistan. In Pakistan, the pipeline reach Multan via Quetta and it will end at Fazilka, Punjab in India. The project is expected to complete by 2019.
Various obstacles in its implementation
The project implementation in past and present faces several risks. Firstly, there is a deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. The pipeline route goes through some of the insecure parts of Afghanistan, where the Taliban has a large degree of control and areas where individual warlords have some influence. Withdrawal of US security forces from Afghanistan also puts a question mark in its implementation. It is suggested that, for success of the project, some sort of arrangement has to be made between Taliban and Afghanistan. Secondly, Pakistan’s insurgency in Balochistan poses a threat to the pipeline. Thirdly, any disrupts in India-Pakistan relationships will put the project on the back burner. Fourthly, security risks increase the cost of project and will affect its viability. Originally the cost of the pipeline project was estimated to around $7.6 billion, but a more recent estimate was $10 billion. Since none of the multinational firms were forthcoming on acceptable terms for executing the project, the four nations have decided to lay the pipeline on their own. Gas companies of the four countries (from India, it is GAIL) established a company that will build, own and operate the planned 1,800 km. State-owned company TurkmenGaz was selected as the pipeline consortium leader. There are reports that UAE company Dragon Oil may take over some part of it.
Implications
For Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves. A steep fall in oil and natural gas prices has forced the country to explore new markets. Turkmenistan sees TAPI pipeline as a way to boost its exports.
For Afghanistan
TAPI has been one of the major agenda items in all major conference on Afghanistan. It is also an integral part of America’s “New Silk Road Strategy“.
New Silk Road Initiative
The New Silk Road initiative of Afghanistan was envisioned in 2011 as an strategy to further integrate Afghanistan into the region by resuming traditional trading routes and reconstructing infra links.
It is expected that Afghanistan would get the benefit of $500m annually as transit fee along with the 16% of gas that would be produced. Besides, the project will also provide job opportunities to thousands Afghans directly and indirectly, and help stabilise its economy. Through its implementation, Afghanistan will become a linkage point in Middle Asia, east and south of the continent. Since most of the security onus is on Afghanistan, it has recently declared to raise a special force of 7000 men to guard the pipeline.
For India and Pakistan
For India and Pakistan, the project would provide much needed access to energy resources at competitive pricing. India and Pakistan will get 38 million standard cubic feet per day each. The joint support by both countries would improve their political and economic relations. The project will also diversify the fuel basket of India.
Regional Integration
The success of the project would certainly improve the region economically, and will pave way for road and rail connectivity between Central Asia and South Asia. Due to this, TAPI project is being seen as first step in economic unification of the Asian region; an effective step towards the formation of the modern architecture of global energy security and an instrument to promote economic and social stability in the Asian region. Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan have also signed an MoU for a power transmission line, which shall be constructed parallel to the pipeline. Further, there are also plans to connect the four partner countries via a parallel fibre optic cable. In this way, Ghani rightly called it as super highway of cooperation and coordination that will connect again South Asia and Central Asia together.
Conclusion
The recently started construction has silenced the sceptics who always considered TAPI of only academic relevance and a subject matter of diplomatic talk shops. Undoubtedly, the beginning has been able to overcome the history of doubt and scepticism.
