End of China’s One Child Policy
After a period of 35 years, China has recently changed its one-child policy and allowed the married couples to have at most two children.
Historical background
During the 1960’s, China under the rule of Maoists was an impoverished agrarian economy with a typical birth rate of six children per woman. Children were seen as assets. There was little social mobility and several generations of families lived together. The government officially encouraged for large families. Mao Zedong considered Malthus theory as capitalists thinking and believed that socialism was more suitable to China. Mao boasted that China could afford to lose 100 million people to prevail in the nuclear war with the USSR that he thought would come. By 1979, Mao Zedong was dead and Deng Xiaoping came to the power. Deng took a different view from Mao. He considered that China would prosper only by controlling the expanding population, which is eating the profits of the growing economy. The government had abolished the reproductive rights of the citizens. People were ordered to take permission to reproduce and any violation of the rules attracted forced abortions and large amounts of fine.
However, these restrictions went into effect in cities only and many in countryside continued having two or more children. Initially, minorities were allowed to not to comply with these rules. However, after some time, officials started implementing the policy forcefully. In this way, the one-child policy resulted in countless forced abortions, maternal and child deaths, and one of the world’s most skewed sex ratios. An estimated 400 million births are prevented. From 5.5 birth rate in 1970, the country’s fertility rate is now well below the replacement level of 2.1.
What factors forced China to abolish one-child policy?
After more than 30 years of one-child policy, Chinese society has changed forever. Currently, China is experiencing shrinking labour force and high older population. There are fears that the increased growth of retirees will make China older before it grows rich. China’s population reached 1.37 billion by the end of last year, and one-tenth were aged 65 or older, a proportion that will rise quickly in coming decades if population growth reduces. It is also estimated that by 2050, one-quarter of China’s 1.4 billion populations will be over 65 years. The increased Age dependency ration and a huge shortage of the workforce is going to put a lots of pressure on China. China fears that the shrinkage of labour force and high wage rates will result in loss of competitiveness of China’s export-driven economy.
Will the new policy change China’s demography and economy?
The decision has come too late in fact. More and more people in China are now preferring small families and have become accustomed to one child. The Government had eased some restricts on one child policy in 2013 also, but it was seen that not many people in urban areas turned up for permission to have a second child. Thus, there does not seem to be a greater impact on urban families. Such a response has been disappointing the demographers now say that the policy shift has come too late to help economic growth over the next decade. The move has certainly returned the basic right to its citizens. However, new policy also limits the family size to two children.
