Global Dam Safety and Future Risks

March 26, 2025

Recently, study published in *Nature Water* brought into light alarming projections regarding dam failures worldwide. Researchers estimated that 23 large dam failures could occur globally by 2035. This study puts stress on the critical need for enhanced investment in dam safety, as 4.4% of large dams currently face a failure probability exceeding 1 in 10,000.

Importance of Dams

Dams play a vital role in water management, energy generation, and flood protection. They provide essential services to communities and ecosystems. However, the consequences of dam failures can be catastrophic, leading to loss of life and economic damage.

Statistical Analysis of Dam Failures

The study conducted a thorough analysis of dam failure probabilities from 1900 to the present. It examined historical failure reports and current dam inventories. The research revealed a pronounced trend of “infant mortality” in dam failures, particularly during the initial years of operation. This is especially relevant for newly constructed embankment dams.

Ageing Dams and Future Risks

The analysis indicated that older dams, particularly those built between 1950 and 2000, are likely to feature prominently in future failure statistics. Many of these structures are embankment dams between 15 and 70 metres tall. The risks associated with ageing dams are less apparent, yet they pose threat.

Economic and Geographical Disparities

There has been an increased failure rates in newly constructed dams located in low-income regions. This trend is particularly evident in monsoon-dominated climates where hydropower potential remains largely untapped. The geographical distribution of dam construction and failures shows a concerning pattern that needs addressing.

Monitoring and Maintenance

Effective dam safety relies on the continuous monitoring and maintenance of structures. The study emphasised the necessity of adapting to evolving hydrological scenarios. Ignoring these factors could lead to substantial liabilities and vulnerabilities, especially in the face of increasing flooding frequency.

International Efforts and Challenges

Since the mid-20th century, organisations such as the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD) and national authorities have worked towards establishing design guidelines for high-hazard dams. These guidelines aim for a failure probability of 1 in 10,000. However, challenges remain due to altered hydrological conditions and limited resources for maintenance.

Financial Implications

The sheer number of dams globally presents a financial burden on administrative bodies responsible for their upkeep. Identifying high-hazard dams is crucial for optimising safety investments while adhering to budget constraints.

« Previous Post Next Post »