Anomalous Temperature Pattern

The anticipation surrounding India’s summer monsoon is heightened by concerns about climate patterns. The El Niño and La Niña phenomena play critical roles in determining monsoon behaviour. Recently, conflicting predictions regarding these phenomena are causing uncertainty.

El Niño and La Niña

El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño refers to warmer sea surface temperatures, while La Niña indicates cooler temperatures. These patterns influence global weather systems. Historically, they have been linked to variations in monsoon rainfall in India.

Current Climate Patterns

As of early 2025, sea surface temperature anomalies are unusual. Warm anomalies exist in the far eastern Pacific, while cold anomalies are found in the central-western Pacific. This mixed state complicates predictions. The relationship between these anomalies and monsoon behaviour remains unclear.

Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is another critical factor affecting the monsoon. It can either enhance or diminish monsoon rainfall. In 2023, a normal monsoon occurred despite a strong El Niño, attributed to a favourable IOD. The interaction between IOD and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) continues to be a subject of research.

Climate Variability and Forecasting Challenges

Climate models face difficulties in providing accurate forecasts due to unprecedented warming trends. The transition between El Niño and La Niña states is influenced by Southern Hemisphere climate variability, known as the ENSO transition mode. This variability can disrupt typical patterns, making forecasting challenging.

Influence of Mid-Latitude Changes

Changes in mid-latitude temperature anomalies impact the jet stream. This shift affects the monsoon and pre-monsoon cyclones, altering their onset and intensity. Farmers depend heavily on accurate forecasts to plan their activities, making the stakes high.

Uncertainties

Forecasts for 2025 are mixed. Some predict a La Niña, while others expect a normal year or a strong El Niño. The unpredictability of these patterns leaves farmers and governments in a state of uncertainty. The need for more reliable forecasting methods is critical.

Month: Current Affairs - March, 2025

Category: Environment Current Affairs