Myanmar Junta Extends State of Emergency Ahead of Elections

February 4, 2025

The military junta in Myanmar has recently extended its state of emergency for an additional six months. This decision comes as the junta prepares for a long-promised election. The announcement was made during a meeting of the National Defense and Security Council. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated that more time is needed to restore stability before holding polls. The junta emphasises the importance of conducting systematic, free, and fair elections.

Background of the Military Coup

In February 2021, the military overthrew Myanmar’s civilian government.
This coup led to widespread protests and a violent crackdown.
The junta has since struggled to maintain control amid a nationwide uprising.
The regime has faced territorial losses to various ethnic armed groups and militias.

Current Political Situation

The junta’s authority has diminished, especially in regions like Rakhine State and northern Shan State. Armed groups, such as the Arakan Army, have gained territory and disrupted military logistics. The United Nations reports that over three million people have been displaced due to ongoing conflicts. Many citizens are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.

The Polycrisis in Myanmar

Myanmar is experiencing a “polycrisis,” which involves political instability, entrenched conflict, and economic disruptions. Human rights violations are rampant, and environmental degradation is worsening. Approximately half of the population lives below the poverty line, with many others barely above it.

Election Preparations and Challenges

The junta has repeatedly delayed election plans due to deteriorating security. The recent census was only partially successful, conducted in 145 out of 330 townships. The junta aims to hold elections in 160-170 townships, but the situation remains precarious. The junta’s inability to set a definitive election date reflects its lack of confidence in controlling the situation.

Role of China and Ceasefires

China has emerged as a key supporter of the junta’s election plans. Beijing has encouraged major rebel groups to cease hostilities and engage in negotiations. Recently, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army agreed to a ceasefire, potentially paving the way for the junta’s election efforts.

Regional and International Reactions

ASEAN has expressed caution regarding the junta’s election plans. The regional body has urged the junta to prioritise dialogue and cease violence. Analysts warn that any election attempt could lead to severe backlash from resistance groups, potentially resulting in violence at polling stations.

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