Global Fertility Declines

January 20, 2025

Recent demographic studies reveal global decline in fertility rates across 204 countries from 1950 to 2021, with projections indicating this trend will continue. Notably, India has experienced a sharp drop in its Total Fertility Rate (TFR), raising concerns about socio-economic implications, especially in southern states.

Global Fertility Rates

Fertility rates are declining worldwide. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is projected to remain low, even with pro-natal policies. Countries face challenges related to ageing populations and labour shortages.

India’s Fertility Decline

India’s TFR fell from 6.18 in the 1950s to 1.9 in 2021.
This is below the replacement level of 2.1.
Projections suggest a further decline to 1.04 by 2100.

Factors Contributing to Decline

Key factors include increased female literacy, workforce participation, and changing societal attitudes towards marriage and motherhood. Women are increasingly prioritising careers over motherhood, leading to later marriages.

Impact of Migration

Young Indians are migrating abroad for education and job opportunities. This trend contributes to declining fertility rates as many choose to settle overseas, impacting population growth.

Consequences in Southern States

States like Kerala are experiencing rapid demographic transitions. An ageing population and declining young workforce are pressing issues. The state achieved replacement level fertility in 1988, leading to socio-economic challenges.

Kerala’s Demographic Challenges

Kerala faces high labour wages and an ageing demographic. Migration of educated youth is leading to a shrinking workforce. Projections indicate that by 2036, the elderly population will surpass that of children.

International Comparisons

Other Asian nations are also witnessing fertility rates drop below one. Countries like South Korea have struggled to reverse this trend despite investments.

Future Considerations

Declining fertility rates may be irreversible. Socio-economic policies that enhance job prospects and support the elderly population are crucial for mitigating the impacts of low fertility rates.

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