Draft Gaza Ceasefire Agreement

January 15, 2025

Recent developments have emerged regarding the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip. On January 14, 2025, Hamas signalled its agreement to a draft ceasefire. While progress was made, final details were still under negotiation. The Israeli Cabinet must approve the plan, which could present challenges. The conflict, which erupted in October 2023, has resulted in casualties, with over 64,000 fatalities reported in Gaza. As the situation escalated, international calls for a ceasefire intensified, especially with the impending transition of US leadership from President Joe Biden to President-elect Donald Trump.

Background of the Conflict

The conflict began with Hamas launching attacks on Israel in October 2023. This prompted a substantial Israeli military response in Gaza. The humanitarian crisis escalated as casualties mounted, drawing global condemnation. Previous ceasefire attempts have faltered due to disputes over military actions and hostage situations.

Overview of the Ceasefire Plan

The ceasefire plan is structured in three phases, based on a framework proposed by Biden in June 2024. The first phase spans six weeks and includes a complete ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas, and the release of 33 Israeli hostages. These hostages were taken during the initial attacks. In exchange, hundreds of Palestinian prisoners would be released.

Humanitarian Assistance

During the first phase, humanitarian aid is a priority. The plan stipulates that 600 trucks of aid will be sent daily to Gaza. This assistance aims to support civilians returning to their homes amidst widespread destruction caused by the conflict.

Negotiation Challenges

The second phase of the plan remains under negotiation. It requires Hamas to release remaining hostages, primarily male soldiers, in exchange for additional prisoners. However, disagreements over the extent of Israeli military withdrawal complicate these discussions. The absence of written guarantees for the continuation of the ceasefire raises concerns about the potential resumption of hostilities.

Political Implications in Israel

The ceasefire agreement faces political hurdles within Israel. Far-right Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has threatened to resign if the deal is accepted. He, along with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has historically opposed similar proposals. The Israeli war cabinet, formed after the Hamas attack, includes members from Netanyahu’s Likud Party and far-right factions, complicating consensus on negotiations with Hamas.

Hamas – Palestinian militant group founded in 1987.
The Lancet – A prominent medical journal based in London.
Itamar Ben-Gvir – Israeli far-right politician and government minister.
Bezalel Smotrich – Israeli Finance Minister and political ally of Ben-Gvir.
Biden’s Framework – Proposal for a ceasefire structure established in June 2024.

Future Prospects for Gaza

The third phase of the plan focuses on Gaza’s reconstruction and the return of deceased hostages’ remains. The success of this plan hinges on effective negotiations and the commitment of all parties involved. The international community continues to monitor the situation, hoping for a lasting resolution to the conflict.

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