Global Temperature Records and Climate Trends

In 2024, the Earth experienced unprecedented warming, officially breaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels. This marked the first time a calendar year exceeded this critical limit, with the average temperature recorded at 1.6 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial baseline.

About the 1.5 Degrees Celsius Threshold

The 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is marker in climate science. It was established during the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming. Crossing this threshold does not initiate new climate phenomena but intensifies existing impacts. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated that the severity and frequency of climate events will escalate with rising temperatures.

The Role of El Niño and Other Factors

The years 2023 and 2024 were influenced by a mild El Niño, a natural climate pattern that typically raises global temperatures. The previous record year, 2016, was impacted by a stronger El Niño. Other factors contributing to the recent warming include underwater volcanic eruptions and reduced sulphur dioxide emissions from shipping. These elements alter the Earth’s climate system, affecting temperature trends.

Current and Future Temperature Projections

Looking ahead, 2025 is not anticipated to surpass 2024 as the warmest year. However, it is expected to remain within the range of 1.1 to 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The UK Met Office has forecasted that 2025 could be the third warmest year on record. A WMO report suggests a possibility of temperatures reaching up to 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the coming years.

Implications of the Recent Warming Trend

The breach of the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold does not imply that the Paris Agreement is invalidated. It marks the need for urgent action to address climate change. Current global emissions continue to rise, indicating that 2030 emission reduction targets are unlikely to be met. The ECMWF has warned that the probability of breaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius target within the 2030s is highly likely.

1. El Niño is a periodic climate pattern affecting global weather.
2. WMO stands for World Meteorological Organization.
3. ECMWF refers to the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.
4. The solar maximum phase occurs every 11 years in the solar cycle.
5. Volcanic eruptions can impact global temperatures.

The Need for Global Action

As climate change continues to present challenges, the need for coordinated global action becomes increasingly critical. The current trajectory of warming suggests that future years may also breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold. The international community must work collaboratively to implement effective climate policies and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Month: Current Affairs - January, 2025

Category: Environment Current Affairs