Study Predicts 49% Increase in Global Flooding by 2100

August 22, 2024

A recent study predicts a big increase in global flooding by the year 2100, mainly due to the continued release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. If these emissions stay high, flooding events could increase by 49% compared to 2020 levels, particularly affecting vulnerable areas like tropical coastlines and dry regions.

Key Findings

Flood Risk by 2050: By 2050, the risk of flooding could be 7% higher if emissions are low and 15% higher if emissions are high.

Regional Differences: The risk of flooding won’t be the same everywhere. Some regions might see a big increase in floods, while others could see fewer.

Global Flood Map (GFM)

To understand these risks better, researchers created a Global Flood Map. This map uses advanced techniques to accurately predict how floods might behave, considering factors like rainfall, river levels, and rising sea levels. This tool is valuable for industries, insurance companies, and those responsible for following climate regulations.

Projected Changes in Flooding

Coastal Flooding: Flooding along coastlines is expected to nearly double, increasing by 99% by 2100, even if we manage to keep emissions low.

Sea-Level Rise: As the oceans warm, they expand, causing sea levels to rise. This will add to the flooding risk, especially in coastal areas.

Types of Flooding and Their Impacts

River Flooding: Flooding caused by rivers is expected to get worse in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and South America.

Rainfall-Induced Flooding: Flooding caused by heavy rain could increase by 6% if emissions are low and by 44% if emissions are high. This type of flooding is especially sensitive to changes in climate.

This study highlights the urgent need to assess flood risks accurately and take proactive steps to reduce the impact of future floods, especially in most vulnerable regions. Understanding these predictions is essential for planning infrastructure and preparing for potential disasters.

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