India’s Market Cap Likely to Hit $10 Trillion by 2030

April 5, 2024

India’s stock market capitalization is currently the fifth largest globally at $4.5 trillion, according to a report titled ‘Recap 2024. Crystal Gaze 2025’ by financial conglomerate Pantomath Group. The report predicts that India’s market cap is likely to hit $10 trillion by 2030, driven by strong economic growth and favorable government policies. This would make India the third-largest economy in the world by 2027.

Current Global Market Cap Rankings

As of 2024, the top five countries by market capitalization are:

United States: $44.7 trillion
China: $9.8 trillion
Japan: $6 trillion
Hong Kong: $4.8 trillion
India: $4.5 trillion

India’s Equity Market Performance in FY2024

In the fiscal year 2023-24, the Indian equity market witnessed a phenomenal performance, with benchmark indices soaring to unprecedented all-time highs:

Nifty: Scaled a milestone of 22,526.60
Sensex: Reached a peak of 74,245.17
NSE Midcap 100: Advanced around 60.06%
NSE Smallcap 250: Advanced around 63.07%

India emerged as one of the best-performing markets in the last four years, ending a time-wise correction in March 2023 and continuing its strong momentum.

Factors Driving Market Growth

Several factors are expected to contribute to India’s market cap growth:

Strong corporate earnings: Indian companies are expected to continue strong performance, driven by a robust domestic demand environment, positive macroeconomic factors, and private capex revival.
Sector-specific growth: Sectors like Auto and Auto Ancillary, Cements, Defence, Railways, Consumer Durables, Energy, Logistics, FMCG, Capital Goods and Engineering, Infrastructure, Construction, Banking, and Financials are expected to outperform in the rally ahead.

Impact of Lok Sabha Elections and RBI Interest Rate Cut

The report suggests that the focus in FY2025 will be on the Lok Sabha elections, with the expectation that the ruling government will retain power and continue its economic reforms and policies. This outcome would instill confidence in both domestic and global investors, encouraging long-term investments in the Indian equity markets.

Emerging Industries Poised for Investment-Led Growth

The report identifies several emerging industries that are poised for investment-led growth in 2024:

Battery energy storage solutions
Green hydrogen
Biotechnology
AVGC (animation, visual effects, gaming, comics)
Semiconductor chip manufacturing, assembly, and design

These industries have been on a hot streak in 2024, as foreign direct investment (FDI) policies have relaxed in recent years, and production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes have promoted industry-wise capacity building.

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