“Equitable Phaseout of Fossil Fuel Extraction” Report

December 6, 2023

A recent report unveiled at the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for Canada to cease fossil fuel extraction by the early 2030s. The report emphasizes the urgency of this action and addresses concerns about the developed world’s failure to meet its “fair share” of emissions reductions.

Challenges in the United States and the United Kingdom

The United States, along with the United Kingdom, Norway, Australia, and several other nations, faces a similar call to end fossil fuel extraction by the early 2030s. The report, titled “Equitable Phaseout of Fossil Fuel Extraction,” urges developed nations to exceed the ambition stated in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). It reveals that these countries need to more than double their efforts to achieve even the lower end of their fair share in emissions reductions.

Global Concerns and Accountability

The report highlights the significance of fair shares, not just as a moral imperative but also as a practical and pragmatic necessity. Failure to ensure developed countries contribute their fair share is deemed disastrous for frontline communities. The assessment compares a country’s fair share based on capacity and financial resources beyond sustaining a decent standard of living, taking into account cumulative historic emissions contributing to the climate crisis.

Production Gap and Urgent Action Needed

The 2023 Production Gap Report raises concerns that companies and countries are on track to extract more than twice the amount of fossil fuels by 2030 than is consistent with the 1.5°C pathways. The report emphasizes the gap between fair share and actual emissions, revealing that the United States, in particular, had a 6.5 gigatonnes excess emissions above its fair share in 2015-2022, far exceeding India’s 400 megatonnes despite its larger population.

Phasing Out and Financial Support

The report calculates phase-out timelines for each country based on their dependence on fossil fuels. While providing different timelines, the report stresses the need for wealthy countries to offer international financial support. For instance, the UK is urged to phase out coal by 2030 and end oil and gas extraction by 2031, contributing 3.8% of the required global support. The United States, with a fair share support of 46.3%, is advised to phase out coal, oil, and gas by 2031.

Balancing Dependence and Capacity

Countries like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with high dependence and high capacity, are recommended to phase out extraction by 2037 and 2041, respectively, providing a fair share of support at 0.4% and 1.5%. Recognizing the need for economic restructuring, the report acknowledges that these economies require time to transition.

India’s Transition Goals and Support

India is advised to aim for a rapid transition by the early 2030s, phasing out oil, coal, and gas by 2031, 2036, and 2031, respectively. Given their lower dependence but limited capacity, the report emphasizes that countries like India, Tunisia, and Peru can only achieve this transition with sufficient support.

Guiding Climate Negotiations and Global Stocktake

The findings from this report should serve as a guide for climate negotiations, including the Global Stocktake. Shirley Matheson from the World Wide Fund for Nature emphasizes the importance of these insights in setting expectations and realigning ambition and action in this critical decade.

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