Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change

November 20, 2023

A recent edition of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change reveals a startling impact of heat exposure on global labor. In 2022, the loss amounted to a staggering 490 billion potential labor hours, marking a nearly 42% increase from 1991-2000.

Global Analysis: A Closer Look at the Numbers

The report conducted a comprehensive analysis, calculating heat-related labor capacity loss for 195 countries. The calculations were based on United Nations estimates of occupational sunlight exposure and working-age populations.

India: Significant Losses and Economic Impacts

In India alone, 191 billion potential labor hours were lost due to heat exposure in 2022, representing a 54% increase from 1991-2000. This resulted in a substantial $219 billion potential income loss, equivalent to 6.3% of the country’s GDP.

Agricultural Workers Bear the Brunt

Agricultural workers faced the most substantial impact, accounting for 64% of potential hours lost and 55% of potential income losses in 2022, according to the report. This trend is observed globally, with agricultural workers being the worst affected in many countries.

Global Workforce Impacted: Averages and Disparities

On average, each worker worldwide lost 143 potential hours of labor capacity. Shockingly, 39% of the global workforce—over 1.3 billion workers—experienced losses greater than this average. Notably, 80% of these workers hailed from low- or medium-Human Development Index (HDI) countries.

Future Projections: A Bleak Outlook

The report warns of a bleak future scenario, projecting a doubling of potential labor hours lost annually by 2041-60 if no further adaptation occurs. This doubling is compared to the 1995-2014 period, with the possibility of it being nearly 2.5 times higher without mitigation.

Economic Consequences: Rising Losses

The economic toll of extreme weather events increased by 23% between 2010–14 and 2018–22, reaching $264 billion in 2022. Concurrently, heat exposure led to global potential income losses amounting to a staggering $863 billion.

Global Inequities Exacerbated

Low- and medium-HDI countries were disproportionately affected by labor capacity loss due to heat exposure, exacerbating global inequities. Potential income losses in these countries were equivalent to 6.1% and 3.8% of their gross domestic product, respectively.

Urgent Call for Action: COP28 and Health Impact

The Lancet Countdown report precedes the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This conference will mark the first to have a dedicated day addressing the significant health impact of climate change.

Fossil Fuels and the Urgency for Change

Despite previous warnings and opportunities to transition to cleaner fuels, the data reveal a concerning trend. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions increased by 0.9% to a record 36.8 Gt in 2022. Only 9.5% of global electricity comes from modern renewables, highlighting the urgent need for change.

Health Professionals Unite: A Plea to COP28

In response to these alarming trends, 46 million health professionals issued an open letter to the COP28 Presidency. The letter calls for an accelerated, just, and equitable phase-out of fossil fuels as a crucial step toward improving global health.

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