UNCTAD annual trade and development report

October 4, 2022

The UNCTAD has released its annual Trade and Development Report 2022.

Key facts

The UN report expects the world economy to grow 2.6% in 2022. This is 0.9 percentage points below last year’s projected rate. The growth is expected to further decelerate in 2023 to 2.2%. This would leave the real GDP below the pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023.
It warns that the rapidly increasing interest rates and fiscal tightening in the advanced economies, along with the Russia-Ukraine War, have already exacerbated the global slowdown into a global economic downturn.
The advanced economies’ monetary and fiscal policies risk triggering a global recession and prolonging stagnation. This could lead to a situation worse than the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 induced shock.
The report holds that attempting to curb inflation by increasing interest rates is an impudent gamble and would lead to a recession.
Excessive monetary tightening, especially given the current situation of declining real wages, financial turbulence and insufficient support and coordination from multilateral forum, could lead to stagnation and instability in many developing economies as well as some developed ones.
The report expects the Indian economy, the largest in the region, to grow 5.7% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023. In FY22, the country’s GDP grew 8.7%.
The country’s economic activity is being affected by weaker public expenditure and higher financing costs, according to the 2022 report. While the government plans to boost capex, especially in the road and rail sectors, the weakening global economy will put pressure on the policymakers to reduce the fiscal imbalances. This would reduce expenditure elsewhere.

UNCTAD trade and development report

The Geneva-based UN body has been releasing this report since 1981 to provide analysis the major current economic trends and policy issues of global concern. It provides recommendations to boost the global economy so that lives of people are improved and the future of the planet is secure.

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